Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2011/obzor20111107.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Nov 7 10:50:07 2011 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:43:46 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: m 31

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON OCTOBER 2011 HAS MADE
Waug.= 88.0,
THAT GIVES FOR 28 MONTH (2011, APRIL) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24
CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*apr.= 41.8
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - JANUARY, 2009 with W*=1.8
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE - 02-06 2013
THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 50 - 70.

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2011,
OCTOBER ACCORDING DATA OF 73 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE
1.. 83 6.. 70 11.. 87 16..108 21..136M 26.. 73 31.. 67
2.. 83 7.. 62 12..102 17..123 22..122 27.. 65
3.. 79 8.. 48m 13..113 18..109 23.. 94 28.. 71
4.. 90 9.. 55 14..119 19.. 99 24.. 91 29.. 66
5.. 70 10.. 63 15..104 20..128 25.. 77 30.. 72

THE MONTHLY MEAN OBSERVED FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON 2011, OCTOBER
F*aug. = 137.3
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 31 - 06.11.2011,
Forecast on 07 - 14.11.2011,
Carrington Rotation 2016 (19,99.10.2011)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD CHANGED FROM AVERAGE TO HIGH
(3.11) AND BACK TO THE AVERAGE. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF
SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=
049+11/-12. ON THE VISIBLE DISK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE CURRENT SO-
LAR CYCLE HAS APPEARED VERY BIG ON THE AREA (> 1500 m. д.п.) SUNSPOT
GROUP. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY ARE PRESENT 8-4 SUN
SPOT GROUPS, AMONG WHICH ONE VERY BIG AND ONE AVERAGE SIZE.

АR11339 N22l117, CMP 7.11.2011, Sp max=1540 m.v.h., EKC, D) - LEFT FROM
E-LIMB 31.10 QUITE GENERATED BY VERY BIG SUNSPOT GROUP AND ALREADY 2-3.
11 (23 h.) HAS MADE ONE LARGE (Х1.9) AND 3 FLARES OF AVERAGE X-RAY
CLASS. THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF AR ACTIVITY REMAINED AND ON NOVEMBER, 4-5th.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE.
THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=060+10/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT HIGH LEVEL ON NOVEMBER, 3rd, THE AVERAGE - 31.10
AND 2, 4-6.11 AND ON LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. BY DATA SOHO CORONOGRAPH FOR
THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 59 CME, AMONG WHICH 1 THERE WERE TYPE "ГАЛО"
(03.11) AND 2 TYPES "PARTIAL ГАЛО II".

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to tm te localization Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/opt. J/m-2
31.10 1455 1508 >1527 n22e90L117 M1.1/ 1.5E-2 11339
31.10 1721 1808 >1850 n22e90L117 M1.3/ 5.0E-2 11339
02.11 2152 2201 2242 N20E73L117 M4.3/SN 4.5E-2 11339 CME/0136?
03.11 1058 1101 1137 N22E69L117 M2.8/SF 2.0E-2 11339
03.11 2016 2027 2140 N22E63L117 X1.9/2B 1.0E-1 11339 CME/Н/2312 UT
03.11 2328 2336 >2344 n22e67L117 M2.1/ 1.4E-2 11339
04.11 2031 2040 2058 N18E46L117 M1.0/SF 5.6E-3 11339
05.11 0308 0335 >0358 N20E46L117 M3.7/1F 8.2E-2 11339
05.11 1025 1121 <1237 N21E42L117 SN/M1.1 1.7E-2 11339
05.11 2031 2038 2139 N21E34L117 M1.8/1N 1.6E-2 11339
06.11 0046 0103 0155 N21E35L117 M1.2/SF 1.8E-2 11339
06.11 0614 0635 0653 N21E31L117 M1.4/SN 1.0E-2 11339
to te central part loc. l(deg.) Fl AR CME
DSF 02/ 0554 S18E42L212 ? CME/0748
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT LOW AND AVERAGE LEVELS. IN CASE
OF EMERGENCE OF NEW SIGNIFICANT MAGNETIC FLUX ARE POSSIBLE FLARES LARGE
X-RAY CLASS. WHILE THE SITUATION WAS STABILIZED - THE MAGNETIC FLUX WHICH
HAS PROVIDED HIGH FLARE ACTIVITY, THE HAS FULFILLED.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED :
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE - date of possible geomagnetic disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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WITH 29.10/10 TO 6.11/13 UT THE EARTH IS IN + SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOOUNDERY + /- THE EARTH SHOULD
PASS ON 20.11.

OCTOBER 31 01 02 03 04 05 06 NOVEMBER
Wus 112 141 121 161 100 123 071
F10.7 138 139 154 160 164 172 121
Хbcg В8.8 B9.2 С1.0 В8.9 В8.8 В8.1 В3.0 GOES
Sp 620 890 1140 2005 1910 1870 600
Nnew 3 2 1 3
IMF + + + + + + + ACE
е>2 7.3Е+5 1.1Е+6 2.5Е+6 8.5E+6 1.6Е+6 9.4Е+6 1.0Е+6 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 6 22 12 3 3 3 14 Ар
Dst KIOTO
Amsc 10 13 19 6 7 9 5 IZMIRAN
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THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL OF FLUX WAS NOT OBSERVED.

NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT
EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE ACTIVE 1.11 IN REPLY TO THE DISTURBATION
WHICH HAS COME TO THE EARTH FROM FILAMENT EJECTION 27.10. IN OTHER DAYS
- REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK IT IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SEC
http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER – SIDC, BELGIUM
http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru