Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2012/obzor20120319.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Mar 19 16:06:40 2012 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:44:29 2016 Кодировка: IBM-866 Поисковые слова: m 13

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 12 - 18.03.2012,
Forecast on 19 - 26.03.2012,
Carrington Rotations 2121 (04,62.03.2012)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD WAS ON AVERAGE LEVEL.
ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE IN-
TERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=049 +12/-17. ON
THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY PRESENT FROM 6 TO 4 SUNSPOT
GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH IS GRADUALLY LESSENING, HAD AVERAGE SIZE:
AR11429 (N18L299, Sp = 1270 m.v.h. ON 7.03, XRI=11.92, X/3+M/12)
- IT APPEARANCE FROM EASTERN LIMB 3.02. WITH AR11430 (N19L315,
Sp = 200 m.v.h. ON 7.03) WAS A SET THE COMPLEX OF ACTIVE REGIONS.
SIGNIFICANT FLARE ACTIVITY STARTED MARCH, 4th. AFTER THE CAO DIS-
SOLUTION AT 12.03 IN AR11429 OCCURENCED ONLY ONE SIGNIFICANT FLA-
RE OF X-RAY CLASS M7.3 ON MARCH 13. THEN IT SHOWED ENOUGH FAST
DEGRADATION AND PASSED FOR THE WESTERN LIMB 17.03 A SUNSPOT GROUP
OF SMALL SIZE. TO 14.03 IN COMPLEX OF AR OCCURENCED X-RAY CLASS X
- 3, CLASS M - 13 FLARES, 6 OF WHICH WAS A LARGE.
By Mac-Intosh the active region flare index is calculated on solar
flares X-ray classes, and classes X gives units (X=5.4 gives 5.4)
and class M gives the decimal (M 7.3 gives 0.73).

NEXT WEEK THE SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE. THE
CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK W=040+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE HIGH LEVEL AT MARCH, 13, MIDDLE - 14 AND
17.03 AND LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. BY DATA OF SOHO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE
PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 28 CORONAL MASS EJECTION AMONG WHICH ONE WAS
TYPE "HALO" (17.03) AND 3 WERE TYPE "PARTIAL HALO" (13, 15, 16.03).

-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te ё№№-©… €‰±± х(1-8A) ся RII/IV CME
·Љѕ©/№є J/m-2 M°†
13.03 1635 1722 2046 N19W59L299 X7.3/ 2.4E-1 11429 II/3 IV/3 CME
14.03 1508 1521 1615 N14W11L221 M2.8/1N 2.9E-2 11429
17.03 2032 2039 2053 S20W25L211 M1.3/SF 3.6E-3 11434 II/2

DSF to te ё№№·Ђ.†Љѕ©·‰ l Ѕ °·‰Ђ. Fl Aя CME
13.03 >0008 <1715 N14W03L231 10
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND AVERAGE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end Љ end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH - N18L238 S07L225 S20L228 S00L244 16.03 1 KP, SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 12.02/17 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD
PASS 21.03.

MARCH 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 MARCH
Wus 089 080 075 085 104 089 054
F10.7 115 141 119 111 099 102 102
шbcg B4.7 ?4.4 B7.6 ?4.7 ?2.4 ?2.0 ?2.4 GOES
Sp 650 650 530 370 330 210 260
Nnew 1 1 1
IMF + /- - - - - - - ACE
Љ>2 2.2х+7 8.8х+7 5.9E+8 2.0х+8 2.2х+8 2.4х+8 5.5х+8 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 31 11 7 31 18 20 11 с·
Dst -55 -49 -42 -78 -56 -66 -57 ыIOTO
Amsc 22 11 9 28 24 21 11 IZMIRAN
---------------------------------------------------------------

A GREATER THAN 10 MeV PROTON ENHANCEMENT (S3) BEGAN AT MARCH, 13
AFTER FLARE M7.3:
Pr >10 MeV: 13.03/1810UT,  ‰ёЄ. 469 p.f.u. 13/2045UT, te-10/1650UT.

Pr >100 MeV: 13/1810 UT,  ‰ёЄ. 1 p.f.u., te - 13/2255 UT.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY
HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS OBSERVED AT MARCH, 12 - 18.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED AT
MARCH, 19 - 21.

THE LEVEL OF MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=32, dur.=12 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN
AND (G2, Ams = 46, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER
OBSERVED MARCH, 12. SINCE MIDDAY OF MARCH, 15 NEXT MAGNETIC STORM (G1,
Ams=51, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA AND (G2, Ams=47, dur.=15 h.)
ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDER WAS OBSERVED. THESE GEOMAGNETIC STORM
ARE THE RESULT OF FLARE EVENTS 10 AND 13 MARCH. MARCH, 17, GEOMAGNETIC
CONDITIONS BEEN ACTIVE (CH EFFECT), AND IN OTHER DAYS - UNSETTLED AND
QUIET.

NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru