Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2012/obzor20120820.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Aug 20 16:18:28 2012 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:45:46 2016 Кодировка: ISO8859-5 Поисковые слова: jupiter

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 13 - 19.08.2012,
Forecast on 20 - 27.08.2012,
Carrington Rotation 2126, 2127 (18,82.07; 15,04.08.2012)

SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE
AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD
WAS MADE W=030+14/-11. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE
2-5 SUNSPOT GROUP ONE OF WHICH WAS MIDDLE SIZE.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND AVE-
RAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W=050+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE HIGHE LEVEL ON 18 AUGUST, AVERAGE LEVEL - ON
17.08, AND THE LOW IN OTHER DAYS. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO CORONO-
GRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 66 CME AMONG WHICH ONE WAS TYPE
"HALO" (M5.5), 3 CME -"PARTIAL HALO III" AND 6 WERE "PARTIAL HALO II".
------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
17.08 1312 1319 >1321 n19N90L232 M2.4/ 6.9E-3 11548 ?эх
17.08 1708 1720 >1723 n19N90L232 M1.0/ 6.1E-3 11548 ?эх
18.08 0024 0102 0119 N19E86L232 M5.5/SF 2.9E-2 11548 ?эх/0136
18.08 0304 0323 0341 N19E86L232 M1.8/SN 8.1E-3 11548 ?эх
18.08 1602 1607 1615 N19E86L232 э1.0/1N 3.8х-3 11548 ?эх
18.08 2246 2254 2310 N19E78L232 э1.0/SF 5.1х-3 11548 ?эх

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
13.08 >1242 <1137 N38E28 N30E11L357 >10 11543
13.08 >1539 <0920 S20E12L005 12 CME/1900
14.08 0932 1323 S12E65L299 09 CME/0612/346 km/c
16.08 >1539 <0920 S32W51L028 08
17.08 ~1836 N23W74L034 ~16 CME/1836
17.08 ~2200 0034 NW CME/0454
c/p local. - central part localization
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND AVERAGE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end Х end S end W end EE R Observatories
?ю + N37L040 N30L035 N28L040 N30L038 15.08 4 KP, SDO, SOHO...
?ю + S03L324 S25L325 S28L322 S09L342 19.08 1 KP, SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 19.08/08 UT EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/ - EARTH SHOULD PASS 24.08.

AUGUST 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 AUGUST
Wus 062 046 032 034 042 056 067
F10.7 108 106 101 098 095 097 096
шbcg ?3.0 ?2.4 B5.6 ?1.8 ?1.9 ?3.7 ?2.0 GOES
Sp 340 350 310 410 400 500 350
N 1 1 1
IMF - - - - - - -/+ ACE
Х>2 1.6х+6 3.7E+6 4.7E+6 3.8х+6 2.6х+7 1.6х+7 2.1E+6 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 9 7 6 11 9 11 12 св
Dst ыIOTO
Amsc 9 9 9 21 9 12 14 IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 21 - 24 AUGUST.

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY WAS ACTIVE ON AUGUST 16 WHEN THE MINOR MAGNETIC
STORM (G0, Ams= 27, dur.= 12 h.) WAS REGISTERED ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA,
BUT UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION ACCORDING BOULDER SWPC CENTER DATA.
IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.
HOWEVER ON AUGUST 19 GROWTH OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE BECAUSE OF IN-
FLUENCE OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM CORONAL HOLES OF THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE OF THE SUN IS POSSIBLE. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM
OF 40 %.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru