Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2013/obzor20131216.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Dec 16 11:41:35 2013 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:48:08 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: universe

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 09 - 15.12.2013,
Forecast on 16 - 23.12.2013,
Carrington Rotation 2144, 2145 ( 21,73.11; 19,05.2013)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN AFTER 10.12 REMAINED AT HIGH
LEVEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL
SYSTEM WAS MADE W=049+13/-21. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY
OBSERVED 8 - 10 QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS, TWO OF THEM WERE OF THE MIDD-
LE SIZE.

NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED THE HIGH AND AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVI-
TY. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W
= 060+30/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS. DURING THE REPORTING
PERIOD 3 GEOFFCTIVE (SMALL RATE) EJECTA OF SOLAR FILAMENT, WHICH
IS ACCOMPANIED BY CME TYPE "PARTIAL HALO II" WAS OBSERVED. BY SOHO
AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 53 CME FROM WHICH
ONE WERE THE "HALO" TYPE AND 6 - "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE.
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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
11.12 0510 0810 S38E49L047 20 CME
12.12 0304 0330 S31W41L124 15 CME
12.12 0451 0624 S32E27L065 7 CME
c/p local. - central part localization
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND
AVERAGE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
СH - N60L071 N45L052 N08L093 N40L115 14.12 4 G1 SDO, SOHO....
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation/
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 26/17 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 17.12.

DECEMBER 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 DECEMBER
Wus 125 169 166 156 141 163 158
F10.7 168 175 171 165 163 164 156
Хbcg B8.0 В8.6 B7.3 В8.0 В7.0 В6.0 В5.8 GOES
Sp 920 1410 1350 1140 1050 1100 1060 mvh
N 3 2 1 1 1
IMF + + + + + + + АСЕ
е>2 3.3Е+6 4.8Е+6 6.1Е+6 6.2Е+6 2.6Е+7 1.4E+6 9.5E+5 GOES
Ie>2 1019 pfu GOES
Ap 4 6 3 2 3 14 5 nT Ар
Dst nT KИOTO
Amsc 9 7 6 5 5 18 9 nT ИЗМИРАН
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е>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL OBSERVED 13.12 ONLY.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION VARIES FROM UNSETTLED TO QUIET ALL DAYS EXCEPT
14.12, WHEN THE EARTH PASSES HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM SOLAR CORONAL HO-
LE AND IN THE SAME TIME FELL UNDER DISTURBANCES OF SOLAR FILAMENT EJEC-
TIONS 11 - 12.12. HOWEVER THIS SUMMARY IMPACT CAUSED IN ENVIRONMENT
JUST TWO SUBSTORMS (G0 AND G1) DURATION 6 h. EACH.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru