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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 11 - 17.08.2014,
Forecast on 18 - 25.08.2014,
Carrington Rotations 2153, 2154 (25,24.07; 21,46.08.2014)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL.
ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 059+14/-18. ON THE VI-
SIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 4 - 8 SMALL QUITE SUN-
SPOTS GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY WHICH
CAN FALL IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD TO THE LOW IS EXPECTED.
ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED
W = 050+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT A LOW LEVEL ON AUGUST 11, 15-16 AND 17. FOR
THE PERIOD TWO EJECTIONS OF THE SOLAR FILAMENT ONE OF WHICH 15.08
WAS ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT CME AND 18-19.08 CAN CAUSE GEOMAG-
NETIC DISTURBACE. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OB-
SERVED 31 CME ONE OF WHICH WAS THE GALO TYPE FROM THE EJECTION OF
FILAMENT MENTIONED ABOVE AND TWO - "PARTIAL GALO II".

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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
15.08 >0949 <2322 S24W32L102 6
15.08 ~1630 S13W05L075 23 CME/1812/289
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW AND, IN SEPARATE DAYS,
AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 17.08/2030 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. AFTER 14.07/01 UT THE SIGN OF SECTOR WAS "+". THE FOL-
LOWING SECTOR BOUNDER -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS ON AUGUST, 21.

AUGUST 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 AUGUST
Wus 082 080 068 108 119 099 121
F10.7 105 104 103 103 113 112 115
Хbcg B3.0 В2.8 В3.2 B2.5 В3.3 B3.5 В3.3 GOES
Sp 400 340 290 340 420 500 640 mvh
N 2 1 3 1 1
IMF - - - -/+ + + +/- АСЕ
е>2 1.3E+7 1.9Е+6 6.2Е+6 9.8Е+6 7.7Е+6 6.3E+6 1.8E+6 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 6 13 6 4 4 3 8 nT Ар
Dst nT KIOTO
Amsc 11 17 9 6 8 6 11 nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL BE NOT EXPECTED.

ALL DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAINED QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.
ON AUGUST 18-19 GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE GROWTH BECAUSE OF ICME ARRI-
VAL FROM FILAMENT EJECTION 15.08 IS POSSIBLE. PROBABILITY OF MAGNETIC
STORM NO MORE THAN 5%.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru