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|Model and forecast of monthly solar indices |Epignose |
|(by Vladimir Kaftan v.kaftan@gcras.ru) | |
| | |
| |(Мreal |
| |?forecast) |
|Charts (solid line is a model, blue stipple line is |Quality characteristics | |
|confident 1? interval, dotted line are data) |(Date Мforecast -1? Мforecast | |
| |Мforecast +1?) | |
|[pic] |Dec. 2012 |40.8 -25.2 |
| |46.6 |62.9 -1.8 |
| |66.0 |38.0 -16.0 |
| |75.6 |57.9 4.9 |
| | |72.4 11.0 |
| |Jan. 2013 |78.7 -7.3 |
| |39.3 |52.5 -21.8 |
| |61.1 |57.0 -25.4 |
| |68.8 |66.0 -35.8 |
| | |36.9 -59.0 |
| |Feb. 2013 |85.6 -7.1 |
| |38.0 |77.6 -12.3 |
| |54.1 | |
| |68.0 | |
| | | |
| |March 2013 | |
| |46.2 | |
| |53.0 | |
| |76.7 | |
| | | |
| |April 2013 | |
| |55.9 | |
| |61.4 | |
| |86.9 | |
| | | |
| |May 2013 | |
| |61.6 | |
| |71.4 | |
| |93.1 | |
| | | |
| |June 2013 | |
| |67.4 | |
| |77.3 | |
| |99.4 | |
| | | |
| |July 2013 | |
| |75.6 | |
| |83.4 | |
| |108.1 | |
| | | |
| |Aug. 2013 | |
| |79.4 | |
| |91.8 | |
| |112.4 | |
| | | |
| |Sept. 2013 | |
| |76.0 | |
| |95.9 | |
| |109.5 | |
| | | |
| |Oct. 2013 | |
| |72.9 | |
| |92.7 | |
| |106.9 | |
| | | |
| |Nov. 2013 | |
| |74.9 | |
| |89.9 | |
| |109.4 | |
| | | |
|[pic] |Dec. 2012 |108.3 -41.3|
| |135.1 | |
| |151.1 |126.8 -22.8|
| |164.1 | |
| | |104.4 -38.8|
| |Jan. 2013 | |
| |128.5 |110.2 -28.6|
| |149.6 | |
| |158.0 |125.0 -14.8|
| | | |
| |Feb. 2013 |131.4 |
| |123.8 |-12.1 |
| |143.2 |110.7 |
| |153.8 |-34.1 |
| | |115.5 |
| |March 2013 |-28.7 |
| |124.6 |114.9 |
| |138.8 |-27.6 |
| |155.1 |102.8 |
| | |-42.5 |
| |April 2013 |132.9 |
| |128.0 |-16.9 |
| |139.8 |148.8 |
| |159.0 |-4.1 |
| | | |
| |May 2013 | |
| |129.0 | |
| |143.5 | |
| |160.5 | |
| | | |
| |June 2013 | |
| |127.3 | |
| |144.8 | |
| |159.3 | |
| | | |
| |July 2013 | |
| |126.3 | |
| |143.2 | |
| |158.8 | |
| | | |
| |Aug. 2013 | |
| |128.7 | |
| |142.5 | |
| |161.8 | |
| | | |
| |Sept. 2013 | |
| |133.1 | |
| |145.3 | |
| |166.6 | |
| | | |
| |Oct. 2013 | |
| |135.9 | |
| |149.8 | |
| |169.9 | |
| | | |
| |Nov. 2013 | |
| |136.3 | |
| |152.9 | |
| |170.8 | |
| | | |
|[pic] |Dec. 2012 |460.2 |
| |0831.3 |-661.1 |
| |1043.3 |996.7 |
| |1411.3 |-124.6 |
| | |442.5 |
| |Jan. 2013 |-716.7 |
| |0863.7 |635.4 |
| |1121.3 |-536.8 |
| |1453.7 |1116.3 |
| | |-88.4 |
| |Feb. 2013 |1117.1 |
| |0872.2 |-170.9 |
| |1158.7 |635.6 |
| |1472.2 |-776.3 |
| | |668.8 |
| |March 2013 |-861.7 |
| |0899.7 |605.2 |
| |1172.2 |-995.5 |
| |1509.7 |300.6 |
| | |-1317.7 |
| |April 2013 |1180.5 |
| |0978.0 |-440.7 |
| |1204.7 |1508.3 |
| |1598.0 |-145.9 |
| | | |
| |May 2013 | |
| |1096.9 | |
| |1288.0 | |
| |1726.9 | |
| | | |
| |June 2013 | |
| |1210.5 | |
| |1411.9 | |
| |1850.5 | |
| | | |
| |July 2013 | |
| |1275.7 | |
| |1530.5 | |
| |1925.7 | |
| | | |
| |Aug. 2013 | |
| |1288.3 | |
| |1600.7 | |
| |1948.3 | |
| | | |
| |Sept. 2013 | |
| |1286.2 | |
| |1618.3 | |
| |1956.2 | |
| | | |
| |Oct. 2013 | |
| |1314.2 | |
| |1621.2 | |
| |1994.2 | |
| | | |
| |Nov. 2013 | |
| |1383.9 | |
| |1654.2 | |
| |2073.9 | |
| | | |


Observation data used:

SIDS Solar Influences Data Analysis Center http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3

Space Weather Canada http://www.spaceweather.ca/sx-eng.php

Royal Greenwich Observatory - USAF/NOAA Sunspot Data
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/greenwch.shtml

Internet resources and publications on solar cycle predictions

NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle

dx-world.net/2011/solar-cycle-prediction-updated

users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24.html

www.springerlink.com/content/71r3833574172838/fulltext.pdf

www.springerlink.com/content/3x404103783n7062/fulltext.pdf

http://www.hindawi.com/journals/aa/si/471218/