Äîêóìåíò âçÿò èç êýøà ïîèñêîâîé ìàøèíû. Àäðåñ îðèãèíàëüíîãî äîêóìåíòà : http://www.iki.rssi.ru/people/Eselevich_etalGiA2009.pdf Äàòà èçìåíåíèÿ: Fri Sep 11 16:15:08 2009 Äàòà èíäåêñèðîâàíèÿ: Tue Oct 2 03:48:48 2012 Êîäèðîâêà: Ïîèñêîâûå ñëîâà: storm

ISSN 0016 7932, Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, 2009, Vol. 49, No. 1, pp. 133­135. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2009. Original Russian Text © V.G. Eselevich, V.M. Bogod, I.V. Chashey, M.V. Eselevich, Yu.I. Yermolaev, 2009, published in Geomagnetizm i Aeronomiya, 2009, Vol. 49, No. 1, pp. 142­144.

DISCUSSIONS

Comment on the Paper "CAWSES November 7­8, 2004, Superstorm: Complex Solar and Interplanetary Features in the Post Solar Maximum Phase," B. T. Tsurutani, E. Echer, F. L. Guarnieri, and J. U. Kozyra, Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 (2008)
V. G. Eselevicha, V. M. Bogodb, I. V. Chasheyc, M. V. Eselevicha, and Yu. I. Yermolaevd
b

Institute of Solar­Terrestrial Physics, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, P.O. Box 4026, Irkutsk, 664033 Russia St. Petersburg Branch, Special Astronomical (Pulkovo) Observatory, Russian Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg, Russia c Pushchino Radio Astronomy Observatory, Lebedev Physics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino, Moscow oblast, Russia d Space Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Profsoyuznaya ul. 84/32, Moscow, 117997 Russia e mail: esel@iszf.irk.ru
Received September 3, 2008

a

Abstract--The solar sources of the magnetic storms of November 8 and 10, 2004, are analyzed. The prelim inary results of such an analysis [Yermolaev et al., 2005] are critically compared with the results of the paper [Tsurutani et al., 2008], where solar flares were put in correspondence with these magnetic storms. The method for determining solar sources that cause powerful magnetospheric storms is analyzed. It has been indicated that an optimal approach consists in considering coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as storm sources and accompanying flares as additional information about the location of CME origination. PACS numbers: 94.30.Lr, 96.60.qe DOI: 10.1134/S0016793209010186

1. INTRODUCTION Tsurutani et al. [2008] studied the causes of the strong magnetic storm, which was generated by the series of three sporadic solar wind flows registered in the Earth's orbit on November 7­8, 2004. The solar and interplanetary sources of the geomagnetic storms of November 7­10, 2004, were previously discussed in detail in many papers (see, e.g. [Ishkov, 2005; Yermo laev et al., 2005; Wintoft et al., 2005; Gopalswamy et al., 2006; Chertok, 2006; Arkhangelskaya et al., 2006; Trichtchenko et al., 2007; Culhane et al., 2007; Harra et al., 2007]). However, these results were mainly ignored (or not mentioned at all) in [Tsurutani et al., 2008]. The initial stage of this period (from 0000 to 1000 UT on November 7, 2004) was characterized by the arrival of two shocks: FS1 (0155 UT, November 7) and FS2 (1000 UT, November 7). The sources of these shocks on the Sun were analyzed in [Tsurutani et al., 2008] and in the earlier papers [Wintoft et al., 2005; Yermolaev et al., 2005]. The conclusions on the solar sources of the FS1 and FS2 shocks drawn in [Tsurutani et al., 2008] substantially differ from the

conclusions made in [Wintoft et al., 2005; Yermolaev et al., 2005]. In these comments we try to demonstrate the cause of this difference. 2. DATA ANALYSIS According to [Tsurutani et al., 2008], FS1 was caused by one of two flares that occurred at close time instants: flare C1.8 that occurred at 0122 UT on November 2 in AR 693(S17E10) or flare C6.9 that was observed at 0143 UT on November 2 in AR 687 (N11W92); FS2 was caused by one of two flares: flare M2.8, 0128 UT, November 3, AR 691(N12W75) or flare M1.6, 0332 UT, AR 696(N09E45). According to [Wintoft et al., 2005; Yermolaev et al., 2005], FS1 and FS2 were probably caused by CME1 (November 3) and CME2 (November 4), respectively. A more detailed analysis performed in [Yermolaev et al., 2005] specifies the time of CME origination and the veloci ties of these ejections (Vc) in the solar corona: CME1 occurred at 1554 UT on November 3 (Vc 800 km/s), and CME2 occurred at 0954 UT on November 4 (Vc 550 km/s). The transit time of CME motion to the Earth calculated by Tsurutani et al. [2008] proved to be

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larger than such a time determined in [Wintoft et al., 2005; Yermolaev et al., 2005] by one day. We assume that differences in the conclusions result from fundamentally different approaches to the determination of the solar sources of shock waves in the Earth's orbit in [Tsurutani et al., 2008] on the one hand and in [Wintoft et al., 2005; Yermolaev et al., 2005] on the other hand. The essence of the approach in [Wintoft et al., 2005; Yermolaev et al., 2005] is as follows: CMEs are considered as sources of shocks in the Earth's orbit, whereas flares give additional infor mation about the location of CME origination. Such an approach is based on the following facts: (1) predic tion based on flares is more ambiguous because the number of flares is pronouncedly larger than that of CMEs; (2) any justified method for finding the corre spondence between flares and shocks in the Earth's orbit is absent, whereas such a method is available for CMEs. In [Tsurutani et al., 2008] shocks are assumed to be caused by flares and CMEs are not altogether considered. Taking the aforesaid into account, we will discuss in more detail the procedure for determining solar sources of FS1 and FS2. 2.1. The Source of FS1 (0155 UT, November 7) Since CME that occurred at 1554 UT on Novem ber 3 (V 800 km/s) was of the halo type and moved toward the Earth (because a flare with coordinates N04E37, related to this ejection, was observed at 1524 UT on November 3 on the visible solar disk), the shock generated by this ejection had to collide with the Earth. Based on the transit time, estimated using the known empirical relationships [Can and Richardson, 2003; Eselevich and Eselevich, 2004], we calculate the time of this CME arrival to the Earth's orbit for the indicated velocity: tp 1400 UT on November 6. Another candidate CME, which occurred at 0354 UT on November 3 (V 900 km/s), is related to flare M1.6 with coordinates N03E45 observed at 0332 UT on November 3. The calculated time of arrival of this CME is tp 1800 UT on November 5. According to this time, CME that occurred at 1554 UT on Novem ber 3 is a more probable source of FS1. We now consider flare C6.9 with coordinates N11W92, which occurred at 0143 UT on November 2, as a source of FS1 (this flare was proposed in [Tsuru tani et al., 2008]). Coronal mass ejection, which occurred at 0254 UT on November 2 at a position angle of PA = 269°, is related to this flare. The velocity of this CME is V 400 km/s, and an angular dimen sion is d 9°. Since this CME originated near the limb (W89), a shock generated by this ejection will pass far from the Earth at such a small angular dimension. 2.2. The Source of FS2 (1000 UT, November 7) Coronal mass ejection that occurred at 0954 UT on November 4 (V 550 km/s) is the most probable

source of FS2 according to the calculations. At such a relatively low velocity, we can assume that V const along the Sun­Earth segment [Cane and Richardson, 2003; Eselevich and Eselevich, 2004]. We find that the calculated time of CME arrival to 1 AU is tp 1300 UT on November 7, which is close to the time of FS2. If flare M1.6 (0332 UT, November 3) was the source of FS2, as was indicated in [Tsurutani et al., 2008], this means that FS2 was caused by the consid ered CME, which occurred at 0354 UT on November 3 (V 900 km/s), related to this flare. The calculated time of arrival of this ejection to 1 AU is tp 2300 UT on November 5, which differs from the FS2 time by almost 1.5 days. Coronal mass ejection that occurred at 0206 UT on November 3 (V 400 km/s) probably corresponds to the second flare (M2.8, 0128 UT, November 3) indi cated in [Tsurutani et al., 2008]. The calculated time of arrival of this ejection is tp 0000 UT on November 6, which is also earlier than the instant of FS2 registra tion by almost 1.5 days. 3. CONCLUSIONS At the present day level of knowledge in the field on solar­terrestrial physics and abundant experimen tal information (first of all, the LASCO/SOHO data), the determination of solar sources of shock waves using only flares is not an optimal method and inevita bly results in series errors. Therefore, the solar flares, presented in [Tsurutani et al., 2008] as sources of the interplanetary and geomagnetic disturbances of November 8­10, 2004, are not causes of these distur bances, which are factually related to CMEs that occurred at 1554 UT on November 3 and at 0954 UT on November 4, 2004. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work was partially supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, project no. 07 02 00042. REFERENCES
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COMMENT ON THE PAPER J. L. Culhane, S. Pohjolainen, L. van Driel Gesztelyi, et al., "Study of CME Transit Speeds for the Event of 07 NOV 2004," Adv. Space Res. 40 (12), 1807­1814 (2007). Yu. I. Yermolaev, L. M. Zelenyi, G. N. Zastenker, et al., "A Year Later: Solar, Heliospheric, and Magneto spheric Disturbances in November 2004," Geomagn. Aeron. 45 (6), 723­763 (2005) [Geomagn. Aeron. 45, 681­719 (2005)]. V. G. Eselevich and M. V. Eselevich, "Sporadic Plasma Flows and Their Sources during Extreme Solar Activity from October 26 to November 6, 2003," Kosm. Issled. 42 (6), 1­13 (2004). N. Gopalswamy, S. Yashiro, and S. Akiyama, "Coronal Mass Ejections and Space Weather due to Extreme Events," Proc. ILWS Workshop, Goa, India. February 19­24, 2006, ed. by N. Gopalswamy and A. Bhatta charyya, ISBN: 81 87099 40 2, p. 79 (2006). http://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/publicaitions/ilws_goa2006/ 079_Gopalswamy.pdf.

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