Estimating the Accuracy of Asteroid Ephemerides
Using the Bootstrap Method
J. Desmars1, J.-E. Arlot1, A. Vienne1,2
1Institut de Mécanique Céleste et de Calcul des Ephémérides - Observatoire de Paris, Paris, France
2Laboratoire d'Astronomie de Lille, Université de Lille, Lille, France
Abstract:
The accuracy of solar system object ephemerides can be estimated by the bootstrap method. This method uses minimal assumptions on the observations. We apply the bootstrap method to two NEOs: Toutatis and Apophis. We provide an estimate of the accuracy of their ephemerides and an estimate of the accuracy of their next close approach to Earth.
Key words:
Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), Near Earth Objects (NEOs), accuracy of asteroid ephemerides, the bootstrap method, Toutatis, Apophis, close approach to Earth.