Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2011/obzor20110704.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Jul 4 15:22:32 2011 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:43:07 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: annular solar eclipse

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JUNE 2011 HAS MADE
Wjune =37.0,
THAT GIVES FOR 24 MONTH (2010, DECEMBER) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES OF
SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*dec. = 28.8
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - JANUARY, 2009 with W*=1.8
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE - 02-06 2013
(Date of approach of a maximum of a current cycle close to a reality can
be defined only after 18 - 24 months of its development).

THE MAXIMUM OF 23 SOLAR CYCLE HAS COME IN APRIL 2000 WITH VALUE
OF THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY WOLF'S NUMBER - W*= 120.7
SECONDARY MAXIMUM OF THE CYCLE IS NOTED IN NOVEMBER 2001 - W*= 115.6
MAXIMUM OF THE RADIO EMISSION ON 10 cm FLUX - F*= 197.2
HAS COME IN FEBRUARY 2002.
THE OF THE 23 CYCLE MINIMUM - DECEMBER 2008 with W*=1.7.
The most probable height according to all available information will make
current 24 cycles of solar activity Wmax = 50 - 70.
Possible specifications after 28 months of development of a cycle (on the
smoothed values of relative Wolf number).

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2011,
JUNE ACCORDING DATA OF 70 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE

1.. 83 6.. 46 11.. 15 16.. 39 21.. 33 26.. 18
2.. 89М 7.. 38 12.. 11 17.. 39 22.. 33 27.. 10м
3.. 86 8.. 30 13.. 10м 18.. 40 23.. 38 28.. 25
4.. 76 9.. 26 14.. 24 19.. 31 24.. 43 29.. 27
5.. 53 10.. 22 15.. 34 20.. 26 25.. 33 30.. 32

THE MONTHLY MEAN OBSERVED FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON 2011, JUNE
F*feb. = 95.8
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 27.06 - 03.07.2011,
Forecast on 04 - 11.07.2011,
Carrington Rotations 2111, 2112 (05,83.06 - 03,01.07.2011)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE LAST PERIOD KEPT CLOSE TO MIDDLE AND
LOW LEVEL. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W = 028+9/-12. ON
THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK WAS CONSTANTLY PRESENT BETWEEN 2 AND 3 OF SMALL
SUNSPOT GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD APPROUCH THE AVERAGE VALUE. THE CALCULATED MOST
LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL
SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=030+10/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW ONLY JULY 21, AND AT A VERY LOW ON OTHER
DAYS. SOHO CORONOGRAPH HAVE REGISTRED 47 CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS FROM
THEM 2 WAS OF TYPE "PARTIAL HALO II" (90-180 deg.).

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to tm te location Class Е(1-8A) АR Radio II/IV CME Pr
X-ray оp J/m-2
to te коорд.центра l в град. Fl AО CME
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES
WERE OBSERVED :
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sign N end Е end S end W end EE R Observatories
СН - N60L030 N50L020 N17L062 N23L065 1-2.07 2 KP, SDO, SOHO.....
This coronal hole - bay of subpolar coronal hole.
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE - date of possible geomagnetic disturbation in the Earth's environment.

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JUNE 27 28 29 30 01 02 03 JULY
Wus 030 037 045 034 051 054 042
F10.7 089 087 087 089 088 086 086
Хbcg B1.6 B1.5 B1.3 B1.0 B1.1 А9.1 В1.4 GOES
Sp 015 040 140 110 120 110 120
Nnew 1
IMF - -/ + +/ - - - - - ACE
е>2 2.4Е+8 2.1Е+8 2.1Е+8 1.0Е+8 1.0E+6 1.2Е+6 7.9Е+5 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 5 3 2 6 13 6 8 Ар
Dst KIOTO
Amsc 6 5 6 8 19 8 12 IZMIRAN
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THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT EXCEEDS THE
THRESHOLD IN 1000 p.f.u. 23/1455 UT AND VERY HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX OBSERVED
27-30.06.

NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.


GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUITE THE WHOLE PERIOD ON WESTERN
HEMISPHERE GEOMAGNETIC OBSERVATORIES DATA, BUT ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA
MINOR MAGNETIC STORM (G0, Ams = 27, dur.= 12 h.) WAS RECORDED AT JULY 1, AS
A RESULT OF EARTH's PASSED THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM
CORONAL HOLE OF THE NOTHERN HEMISPHERE WHICH IN THE PREVIOUS ROTATION HAS
CAUSED THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM.

NEXT WEEK IT IS MOST PROBABLE QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS.


HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SEC
http://www.sec.noaa.gov ,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER – SIDC, BELGIUM
http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3 ,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA
http://www.izmiran.ru
WDC STP MOSCOW