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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 05 - 11.09.2011,
Forecast on 12 - 19.09.2011,
Carrington Rotation 2114 (26,45.08.2011)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE SUN OF THE LAST PERIOD KEPT AT THE
AVERAGE LEVEL. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER
IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=048+19/-12.
ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY THERE IS FROM 6 TO 3 SUN-
SPOT GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH, QUIET, THE AVERAGE SIZES.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE.
THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=050+10/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON AN HIGH LEVEL 6-8 SEPTEMBER WHEN IN SMALL ACTIVE
REGION AR11283 (N14L227, Sp max = 230 m. д.п.) TO THE COMPLEX MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATION THERE WERE 4 LARGE FLARES, AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL - 5, AND
9-10th SEPTEMBER, ON A LOW LEVEL - 11.09. SOHO CORONOGRAPH HAVE REGISTRED
62 CME FROM WHICH 10 WERE TYPE PARTIAL HALO II AND ONE - TYPE HALO IV
FROM LARGE FLARE X2.1 6.09.

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to tm te localization Class Е(1-8A) АR RII/IV CME
X-ray opt. J/m-2
5.09 0408 0428 >0432 N18W90L304 M1.6/ 2.2E-2 11286
5.09 0727 0758 >0806 n18w90L304 M1.2/ 1.7E-2 11286
6.09 0135 0150 0236 N14W07L227 M5.3/1B 5.4E-2 11283 II/3 IV/1 CME
6.09 2212 2220 0029 N14W18L227 X2.1/2B 5.8E-2 11283 II/2 IV/3 CME
7.09 2215 2238 >2348 N14W28L227 X1.8/3B 6.9E-2 11283 II/1 IV/1 CME
2309 2310 2340 N15W28L227 /1F 11283
8.09 1532 1546 1632 N14W40L227 M6.7/1N 4.2E-2 11283 IV/1 CME
9.09 1239 1249 1305 N13W52L227 M1.2/1B 7.8E-3 11283
9.09 0601 0609 0633 N16W47L227 M2.7/1N 1.5E-2 11283 II/1 CME
10.09 0718 0740 0803 N12W61L227 M1.1/SN 1.9E-2 11283
to te central part localization l в град. Fl AR CME
DSF 10/0030 0300 N25W36L185 CME/0936
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED :
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sign N end Е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH - N23L162 S23L147 S27L150 N05L178 11.09 5 KP,SDO,SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE - date of possible geomagnetic disturbation in the Earth's environment.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 9.09/21 UT THE EARTH IS IN - SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOOUNDERY - /+ THE EARTH SHOULD PASS ON 30.09.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
SEPTEMBER 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 SEPTEMBER
Wus 102 113 060 047 065 077 094
F10.7 119 093 113 110 112 116 121
Хbcg C1.6 B5.7 B3.8 B3.6 B4.2 B4.7 В4.8 GOES
Sp 440 560 620 630 680 780 750
Nnew 1 1 1 1 1
IMF + + + + + /- - - ACE
е>2 3.3Е+6 1.8Е+7 4.8Е+7 8.3Е+7 5.1E+7 2.8Е+6 9.7Е+6 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 5 6 6 3 36 32 9 Ар
Dst -32 -30 -19 -17 -70 -75 -53 KIOTO
Amsc 10 7 5 4 27 20 12 IZMIRAN
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THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY HIGH LEVEL
OF FLUX WAS OBSERVED 7 - 9.09.

NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED ON
13 - 14 SEPTEMBER.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET TO SECOND HALF ON SEPTEMBER,
9th WHEN TWO INTERPLANETARY SHOCK WAVES FROM THE LARGE FLARES 6.09 (SI 9/1243
9/1250 UT) HAVE COME TO EARTH's ENVIRONMENT AFTER WHICH THE MAGNETIC STORM HAS
DEVELOPED. ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA THIS MAGNETIC STORM HAS REACHED LEVEL MINOR
(G2, Ams=29, dur.=36 h.), ACCORDING TO GEOMAGNETIC OBSERVATORIES of the WESTERN
HEMISPHERE DATA THE MAGNETIC STORM WAS MODERATE (G3, Ams=45, dur.= 36 h.).

NEXT WEEK AT SEPTEMBER 12 AND, PROBABLY, 13th IT IS EXPECTED ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC
CONDITIONS FROM 40 % PROBABILITY OF GROWTH MAGNETIC DISTURBATION TO LEVEL OF THE
MINOR MAGNETIC STORM AT LEAST IN ONE OF THESE DAYS. THIS SITUATION IS CAUSED BY
PASSAGE OF A HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND BY THE EARTH FROM BIG NEAR
EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE MOST PROBABLE
QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA OF NOAA SEC
http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER – SIDC, BELGIUM
http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru