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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 27.11 - 11.12.2011,
Forecast on 12 - 19.12.2011,
Carrington Rotation 2017 (16,30.11.2011)

SOLAR SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE SUN OF THE LAST PERIOD KEPT AT AVER-
AGE AND HIGH (4, 5.11) LEVELS. ESTIMATED, RATING, WEEKLY AVERAGE
OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS
MADE W=073+38/-19. ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY THERE
ARE FROM 6 TO 11 SUNSPOT GROUPS, TWO OF THEM IS AVERAGE SIZE, HOW-
EVER MOST HAVE REMAINED STABLE AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVE-
RAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PERIOD W=070+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON A LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS. SOHO CORONOGRAPH HAVE
REGISTRED >120 CME FROM WHICH WAS 8 WERE TYPE "PARTIAL HALO" II, III.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
to tm te localiz. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X/opt. J/m-2

DSF to te c/p localiz. l in deg. Fl AR CME
27.11 <2321 <1426 S24W41L243 11
03.12 0632 0907 N20W33L155 15
09.12 1700 1819 N16W39L082 10 11364
11.12 0600 N25E25L352 40 CME(A)/0754
11.12 0900 N30W17L000 10 CME(A)/1024
c/p localiz. - central part localization
---------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED :
---------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end Х end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH - N08L055 N00L028 S13L043 N05L060 11.12 1 KP
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

BETWEEN 28.11/~12 UT AND 8.12/19 UT THE EARTH IS IN + SECTOR OF THE
INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOOUNDERY - /+
THE EARTH SHOULD PASS ON 26.12.

NOVEMBER 27 28 29 30 01 02 03 DECEMBER
Wus 123 090 106 111 089 106 138
F10.7 135 138 141 144 155 157 160
шbcg ?4.0 ?5.3 ?5.1 ?5.1 ?5.7 ?5.8 ?6.0 GOES
Sp 630 350 510 620 540 880 620 730
Nnew 1 2 1 1
IMF - -/ + + + + + + ACE
Х>2 1.5х+7 2.8х+6 1.0х+6 3.5E+5 1.8х+6 4.3х+6 3.9х+6 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 6 4 9 10 7 4 9 св
Dst KIOTO
Amsc 8 8 15 20 11 12 16 IZMIRAN
-----------------------------------------------------------------

DECEMBER 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 DECEMBER
Wus 154 185 143 122 142 116 090 103
F10.7 164 158 151 149 145 144 140 134
шbcg ?5.4 ?5.2 ?4.7 ?4.5 ?4.4 ?3.8 ?4.2 B4.7 GOES
Sp 960 1175 630 750 720 630 870
Nnew 1 2 3 3
IMF + + + + + /- - - - ACE
Х>2 1.6х+7 1.9х+7 1.9х+7 1.9E+7 1.5х+7 6.0х+6 2.2х+6 2.9E+6 GOES
Nm% 5 THULE
Ap 4 2 1 2 3 3 8 св
Dst KIOTO
Amsc 7 8 6 7 9 8 10 10 IZMIRAN
-----------------------------------------------------------------

MINOR (S1) SOLAR PROTON EVENT OBSERVED NOVEMBER, 26:
Pr (>10 MeV) 26/~08 UT; max 26/2055-80 p.f.u 27/0125; end-28/0145 UT.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT VERY
HIGH LEVEL OF FLUX WAS NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

ALL PERIOD GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET BUT AC-
CORDING IZMIRAN DATA NOVEMBER, 30 THERE WAS MINOR MAGNETIC STORM
(G0, Ams=25, dur. = 15 h.). ACCORDING DATA TO GEOMAGNETIC OBSERVA-
TORIES OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONSIN THIS HOURS
REMAINED ACTIVE ONLY.

NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED REMAINED QUIET AND
UNSETTLED.


HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru