Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2012/obzor20120723.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Jul 23 13:09:33 2012 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:45:39 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 16 - 22.07.2012 ,
Forecast on 23 - 30.07.2012,
Carrington Rotation 2125, 2126 (21,62.06; 18.82.07.2012)

SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL, BUT BY JULY
22 DECREASED TO THE LOW. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=035+18/-18. ON THE VI-
SIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY WERE PRESENT 5- 2 SUNSPOT GROUP, ONE
OF WHICH WAS BIG SIZE:
AR11520 (S15L088, Sp = 1070 m.v.h. on 8.07)- it was formed on the
visible disk 06.07 near east limb and together with AR11521 for-
med the complex of AR. Fast development in big sunspots observed
for third day and made two large and 3 proton flares. For the wes-
tern limb (19.07) it left the sunspot group of average size.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE.
THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W=050+10/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE HIGHE LEVEL AT 19.07, THE AVERAGE LEVEL -
17.07, AND THE LOW IN OTHER DAYS. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO CORONO-
GRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OBSERVED 46 CME AMONG WHICH ONE WAS TYPE
OF "HALO" AND 2 WERE "PARTIAL HALO II".
------------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
17.07 1203 1715 >1904 S28W65L088 M1.7/ 2.1E-3 11520 CME/1536
19.07 0417 0558 >0656 S16W90L088 M7.7/SF 2.4E-3 11520 II/1 IV/1 CME/0612
-
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
20/ NW
c/p local. - central part localization
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE STIL LOW AND VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
---------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH + S17L332 S30L313 S35L320 S22L306 19.07 3 KP, SDO, SOHO...
СН + N62L290 N51L283 N38L291 N43L306 26.07 1 SDO, SOHO, GOES13
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 15.07/0530 UT EARTH WAS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD PASS 24.07.

JULY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 JULY
Wus 089 087 059 039 055 050 029
F10.7 138 128 110 100 092 090 094
Хbcg С1.0 С1.0 B6.2 В5.8 В8.4 В1.7 В2.2 GOES
Sp 840 920 480 140 110 060 070
N 1
IMF - - - - - - - ACE
е>2 1.4Е+7 1.6E+8 3.5E+8 7.4Е+8 2.9Е+8 5.1Е+7 4.1E+7 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 33 14 4 5 11 10 8 Ар
Dst -105 -72 -31 -17 -24 -16 -17 КIOTO
Amsc 27 17 8 9 14 10 8 IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------

SOLAR PROTON EVENT (S3) IS OBSERVED AFTER X-RAY CLASS M1.7 FLARE 17.07:
Pr (E>10 MeV) -17/1715 UT; tmax=136 p.f.u. - 18/0600 UT; te - 22/15 UT.
THE SECOND SOLAR PROTON EVENT OF AVERAGE INTENSITY (S3) WAS IMPOSED ON
THE FIRST AFTER SOLAR FLARE M7.7 ON JULY 19:
Pr (E>10 MeV) -19/1715 UT; tmax=136 p.f.u. -18/0600 UT; tE - 22/15 UT.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL WAS OBSERVED AFTER 15.07/1055 UT TO 20.07.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 29 - 30.07.

LONG MAJOR MAGNETIC STORM (G3, Ams=34, длит. = 42 h.) TO DATA IZMIRAN
AND (G3, Ams =39, dur.36 h.) BY DATA OF BOULDER IT IS REGISTERED ON
JULY 15 - 16. THIS STORM - THE CONSEQUENCE OF LARGE FLARE Х1.4 12.07.
IN OTHER DAYS GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUITE.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND LOW.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru