Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2012/obzor20120806.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Aug 6 10:50:22 2012 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:45:42 2016 Кодировка: ISO8859-5 Поисковые слова: universe

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON JULY 2012 HAS MADE
Wjuly= 66.5,
THAT GIVES FOR 37 MONTH (2012, JANUARY) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYCLES
OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*jan.= 65.5
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - JANUARY, 2009 with W*=1.8
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE-
09 - 12.2012
THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 60 - 90.

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2012,
JULY ACCORDING DATA OF 69 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE

1.. 84 6.. 88 11.. 73 16.. 68 21.. 19Э 26.. 57 31.. 81
2.. 85 7.. 97э 12.. 83 17.. 57 22.. 19Э 27.. 73
3.. 83 8.. 78 13.. 86 18.. 38 23.. 42 28.. 71
4.. 87 9.. 81 14.. 83 19.. 25 24.. 47 29.. 74
5.. 86 10.. 71 15.. 78 20.. 24 25.. 42 30.. 80

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz) ON 2012, JULY
F*july = 133.9
THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2012, JULY
Ap july = 14.37

It became so far clear that the current solar cycle didn't become
lowest of authentic cycles of solar activity. The lowest
solar cycle there was the solar cycle N14.
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 30.07 - 05.08.2012,
Forecast on 06 - 13.08.2012,
Carrington Rotation 2126 (18.82.07.2012)

SUNSPOT ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL, HOWEVER ON
JULY 3 ROSE TO THE HIGH. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE
INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W=075+21/-11. ON THE VI-
SIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 6-12 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE OF
THEM, AR11532 (S20L185), GRADUALLY DEGRADING, BECAME AT FIRST THE AVE-
RAGE, AND SINCE AUGUST 1 THE SMALL SIZE:
AR11532 (S20L185, Sp= 510 m.v.h. on 28.07)- it was appeares on the vi-
sible disk 25.07. Fast development with August 27 on 28 with increase
of sunspot area in 6.5 times and at the end of the days a large flare
was occurrences. In only 37 hours on July 27-30 in this active region
were occurence 1 large and 2 flares of the average class.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AVERAGE.
THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W=060+10/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE AVERAGE LEVEL AT 30.07, AND THE LOW IN OTHER
DAYS. BY DATA OF SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS FOR THE PERIOD IT WAS OB-
SERVED 73 CME AMONG WHICH ONE WAS "HALO" TYPE, ONE OF "PARTIAL HALO III"
AND 3 WERE "PARTIAL HALO II".
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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
30.07 1539 1548 1614 S22E28L1173 M1.1/SN 5.2E-3 11536

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
04.08 1141 1456 S7E17L103 >20 C3.5 11539-38 CME/1224/H
c/p local. - central part localization
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK DURING THE LAST WEEK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL
HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end Х end S end W end EE R Observatories
?ю + N08L099 N00L102 S02L191 N07L101 10.08 1 KP, SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
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WITH 28.07/~20 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS.
THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/ + EARTH SHOULD PASS 7.08.

JULY 30 31 08 09 10 11 12 AUGUST
Wus 106 116 118 126 160 140 107
F10.7 136 140 150 135 140 139 134
шbcg ?5.6 ?5.8 B6.3 ?4.8 ?5.6 ?6.0 ?6.2 GOES
Sp 810 790 900 890 820 880 730
N 2 2 1 2
IMF - - - - - - - ACE
Х>2 1.19х+7 1.6E+7 2.2E+7 1.6х+7 2.8х+6 5.7х+6 7.7E+6 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 13 6 5 17 8 7 6 св
Dst ыIOTO
Amsc 18 6 9 21 9 7 6 IZMIRAN
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THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY WERE ACTIVE ON JULY 30 AND ON AUGUST 2 WHEN TWO
SUBSTORMS WERE REGISTERED BY DURATION OF 6 HOURS (G1) AND OF 9 HOURS
(G1). IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND
QUIET.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET,
HOWEVER AUGUST 6, 8 AND 10 THE SEPARATE PERIODS OF ACTIVE ARE POSSIBLE.


HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru