Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2013/obzor20130211.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Feb 11 12:18:11 2013 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:46:33 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: черные дыры

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 03 - 10.02.2013,
Forecast on 11 - 18.02.2013,
Carrington Rotations 2133 (25,84.01.2013)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE LOW AND AVERAGE LE-
VEL. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
FOR THE PERIOD (8 DAY) WAS MADE W=031+16/-13. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK
CONSTANTLY THERE WERE PRESENT 2 - 4 SMALLAND QUITE SUNSPOTS GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE LOW AND
AVERAGE. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W =
040+10/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT LOW LEVEL 3-6.02 AND VERY LOW LEVEL ON THE OTHER
DAYS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 34 CME
AND TWO OF THEM WERE THE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE.

--------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
5.02 >1037 >1038 S27E51L164 8
8.02 >0016 <1410 N56E13L162 7
9.02 >2011 <1437 S40E29L133 15
c/p local. - central part localization
-------------------------------------------------------------------

ON THE FOLLOWING WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH - N40L281 N28L209 N17L239 N22L257 05.02 3(11) KP, SDO SOHO...
CH + S25L201 S40L186 S45L267 S40L211 08.02 1 KP, SDO SOHO...
CH + N40L131 N32L116 N27L126 N30L136 14.02 1 KP, SDO SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 5.02/18 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ EARTH SHOULD PASS AT 12.02.

FEBRUARY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 FEBRUARY
Wus 079 030 041 039 058 057 058 045
F10.7 111 107 105 104 103 104 108 206
Хbcg В2.9 В1.9 B1.7 B1.8 В1.4 В1.7 B1.9 B1.6 wt/m-2 GOES
Sp 400 260 210 230 270 280 300 280 m.v.h.
N 1 1
IMF - - -/+ + + + + + АСЕ
е>2 1.5Е+7 7.3E+6 5.5E+6 5.5Е+6 9.2Е+5 9.2Е+5 1.1E+6 1.3E+6 GOES
Ie>2 GOES
Nm% THULE
Ap 4 4 2 2 6 7 3 4 nТ Ар
Dst КIOTO
Amsc 4 3 4 7 7 12 7 8 nТ IZMIRAN
------------------------------------------------------------------------

>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WAS QUIET AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru