Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2013/obzor20130513.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon May 13 13:36:32 2013 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:46:56 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: annular solar eclipse

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 06 - 12.05.2013 ,
Forecast on 13 - 20.05.2013,
Carrington Rotations 2136, 2137 (17,78.04; 15,02.05.2013)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN CHANGED FROM THE AVERAGE TO THE
HIGH LEVELS. WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATI-
ONAL SYSTEM FOR THE PERIOD WAS MADE W = 083+21/-12. ON THE VISIBLE
SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE WERE 7-10 SUNSPOTS GROUPS, ONE OF WHICH
WAS A BIG (AR11745, S19L134, N11L340, Sp max=600 m.v.h.) AND ONE -
AVERAGE.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE AVERAGE
AND THE HIGH. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED
W = 070+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL ON MAY 10 AND 12 AND ON THE
LOW - IN OTHER DAYS. TWO FLARES OF THE MIDDLE CLASSES HAPPENED ON MAY
12 IN AR NEAR EAST LIMB WHICH IS IN THE FLARE MODE OCCURRENCE AND AL-
READY AT THE BEGINNING OF 13.05 OCCURENCED THE LARGE FLARE OF X-RAY
CLASS X1.7, i. e. FOR 6 h. WERE OCCURRENCED THE LARGE AND TWO FLARES
OF THE MIDDLE CLASSES. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK ON MAY 8, 10-12 THERE
ARE SEVEN OF THE SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTA ARE NOTED. BY SOHO AND STEREO
CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 53 CME FROM WHICH THREE WAS THE
TYPE OF "PARTIAL GALO II".

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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
10.05 1237 1256 >1304 N12E89L340 M1.3/ 1.3E-2 11745
10.05 0044 0057 >0108 N12W89L340 M3.9/ 3.6E-2 11731
12.05 2017 2032 >2103 N10E89L M1.9/
12.05 2237 2244 >2252 N10E89L M1.2/

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
08.05 >0021 <2359 S29W09L093 19
10.05 >0911 <0126 N07E41L015 6
10.05 >1619 <0852 N08W35L127 17
11.05 >0943 <2251 N34W36L079 11
11.05 >0943 <2251 N14W12L055 7
11.05 2222 2249 N39W36L080 17 CME
12.05 0129 0222 S18E31L399 4 11740
c/p local. - central part localization
--------------------------------------------------------------------

FLARE ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED ON THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LEVELS. AR
WHICH IS NEAR EAST LIMB GIVES OUT SIGNIFICANT FLARES, BUT IT ISN'T POS-
SIBLE TO ESTIMATE ITS FLARE POTENTIAL, HOWEVER FROM THE ASSESSMENT OF
AVERAGE POSSIBLE FLARE PERIOD, IT IS POSSIBLE TO EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
FLARES TILL MAY 15.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH ? N48L094 N42L089 N30L107 N35L111 09.05 1 SDO, SOHO..
CH ? N3L5075 S12L060 S18L060 S10L082 12.05 1 SDO, SOHO..
CH ? S25L030 S43L015 S45L015 S25L030 15.05 2 SDO, SOHO..
R - solar rotations; KP - KITT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbation in the Earth's environment.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER 05.05/15 UT EARTH WAS PASSED IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/ - THE EARTH SHOULD TO
PASS 14.05.

MAY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 MAY
Wus 122 118 112 154 149 145 173
F10.7 131 129 127 128 125 137 147
Хbcg В5.5 В5.1 В4.3 B5.4 В6.7 В7.8 B8.5 wt/m-2 GOES
Sp 670 670 740 945 890 1050 1280 m.v.h.
N 1 3 1 1 1
IMF + + + + + + + АСЕ
е>2 1.3Е+7 1.4E+7 2.7E+7 3.5Е+7 3.4Е+7 3.0Е+7 2.5E+7 GOES
Ie>2 369 395 674 749 016 551 456 GOES
Ap 8 10 7 5 4 4 5 nТ Ар
Dst nТ KIOTO
Amsc 13 16 11 9 11 10 11 nТ IZMIRAN
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е>2 - a fluence in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru