Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2013/obzor20131104.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Nov 4 13:15:40 2013 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:47:55 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r

--------------------------------------------------------------------
THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON OCTOBER 2013 HAS MADE
Woct.= 85.6,
THAT GIVES FOR 58 MONTH (2013, APRIL) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYC-
LES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*apr.= 57.9
THE BEGINNING 24 CYCLES OF SOLAR ACTIVITY - I 2009 with W*=1.8
THE MOST PROBABLE TIME OF THE MAXIMUM OF THE CURRENT CYCLE-
XII.2013 - IV 2014
THE MOST PROBABLE HEIGHT OF THE MAXIMUM - Wmax = 66 - 75.

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2013,
OCTOBER ACCORDING DATA OF 67 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE

1.. 36 6.. 35m 11.. 91 16.. 89 21.. 96 26.. 99 31.. 97
2.. 45 7.. 55 12.. 84 17..109 22.. 88 27..111
3.. 51 8.. 72 13.. 99 18..116M 23.. 93 28..110
4.. 59 9.. 79 14.. 96 19.. 97 24..108 29..112
5.. 43 10.. 90 15.. 96 20.. 85 25..103 30..109

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz)ON
2013, OCTOBER Foct.= 132.1

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2013, OCTOBER
Ap oct.= 7.65
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 28.10 - 03.11.2013,
Forecast on 04 - 11.11.2013,
Carrington Rotation 2143 (25,43.10.2013)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE HIGH LEVEL.
WEEKLY, THE AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM
WAS MADE W=81+22/-24. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY THERE
WERE 5-9 SUNSPOT GROUPS TWO OF WHICH WERE LARGE AR11875 (N07L027,
Sp max=790 mvh, X/2+M/10) AND AR11890(S09L173, Sp max = 660 mvh).
THE FIRST GONE FOR W-LIMB 29.10, THE SECOND IS APPEAR FROM E-Limb
1.11. ONE SUNSPOT GROUP AR11884 (S09L261, Sp max=460 msh) WAS ME-
DIUM SIZE AND HAS BEEN IN IT 1 - 3.11 OCCURRE A LARGE ONE AND TWO
FLARE MIDDLE IMPORTANCE.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGH,
AVERAGE AND LOW LEVELS. THE CALCULATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE
VALUE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT
WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 080+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS FOR AT THE HIGH LEVEL AVERAGE LEVEL ON 28-29.10,
1 И 3.11, THE LOW - 30.10 AND AVERAGE IN OTHER DAYS. DURING THE CON-
SIDERED PERIOD 1 DSF WAS OBSERVED. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS
DATA THERE WERE OBSERVED 57 CME FROM WHICH 4 WERE THE "HALO" TYPE
AND 4 - "PARTIAL HALO II".
--------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
28.10 0141 0203 0231 N04W66L027 X1.0/2N 8.4E-2 11875 II/2 СМЕ
28.10 0432 0441 0453 N08W21L027 M5.1/2B 2.1E-2 11875 II/2 IV/1 CME
28.10 1132 1153 1336 S16W44L009 M1.4/2N 4.0E-2 11877
28.10 1400 1405 1418 N06W78L027 M2.8/1N 1.4E-2 11875
28.10 1446 1501 1523 S08E28L293 M2.7/1N 9.8E-3 11882
28.10 1507 1511 >1613 S06E28L293 M4.4/1N 2.6E-2 11882 II/2 IV/1 CME
28.10 2048 2057 >2102 N07W83L027 M1.5/ 6.8E-3 11875
29.10 2142 2154 >2201 N05W89L027 X2.3/ 1.4E-1 11875 II/1 IV/1 CME
31.10 1336 1331 >1402 S10W88L352 M1.9/ 1.9E-2 11879
01.11 1946 1953 2055 S11E01L261 M6.3/1B 2.3E-3 11884 CME
02.11 2213 2221 2248 S12W11L261 M1.6/1F 6.4E-3 11884
03.11 0516 0522 0540 S12W16L261 M5.0/2B 1.3E-2 11884 CME

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
02.11 >0949 <2227 S24W02L243 7 C8.2 AR11885
c/p local. - central part localization
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE HIGH,
THE AVERAGE AND LOW LEVEKS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R Observatories
CH - N20L223 N18L218 N11L236 N13L238 06.11 7 SDO, SOHO,...
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 2.11/20 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELDS, HOWEVER 29.10/14 - 31.10/09 UT THE EARTH WAS IN "+" SECTOR ALSO.
THE FOLLOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH MUST PASS 9.11.

OCTOBER 28 29 30 31 01 02 03 NOVEMBER
Wus 155 171 132 128 095 123 143
F10.7 160 153 142 143 145 142 144
Хbcg С1.2 С1.1 B6.5 B5.9 В8.1 В6.5 B6.1 GOES
Sp 1750 1720 1230 900 730 710 1280 mvh
N 1 1 1 2
IMF +/- -/+ + +/- - -/+ + АСЕ
е>2 2.1Е+7 1.3E+7 1.4E+6 6.3Е+5 1.2Е+6 5.8E+6 3.6E+7 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 2 5 13 6 3 2 10 nT Ар
Dst nT KIOTO
Amsc 4 8 15 10 6 6 6 nT IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------
е>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of a flux of electrons in geostationary
orbits in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 p.f.u.
TWO SMALL SOLAR PROTON EVENTS OCCURRED 28.10 AND 2.11:
Pr 28/0235 UT, max 30/0925 UT - 4 pfu, te 31/~12 UT;
Pr 02/0830 UT, max 02/20 UT - 3 pfu, te 03/~10 UT;

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL WERE NJN OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS EXPECTED 7 - 9.11.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION CHANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO THE QUIET.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC SITUATION IS EXPECTED QUIET AND UNSETTLED ALL
DAYS.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru