Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2014/obzor20140324.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Mar 24 11:13:35 2014 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:48:39 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: universe

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 17 - 23.03.2014,
Forecast on 24 - 31.03.2014,
Carrington Rotation 2148 ( 11.06.2014)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY REMINDER AT THE MODERATE LEVELS. THE
AVERAGE OF SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE
W=082+13/-16. ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 6-
9 SMALL SUNSPOT GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED THE HIGH AND THE MODERATE LEVELS OF SUN-
SPOTFORMING ACTIVITY. ESTIMATED MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VA-
LUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR
THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED W=070+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MODERATE LEVEL 20 AND 13.03, AND LOW
LEVEL IN OTHER DAYS. WITHIN THE PERIOD WERE OBSERVED 4 SOLAR FI-
LAMENT EJECTIONS. BY SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA THERE WE-
RE OBSERVED 43 CME, ONE OF WHICH WAS THE TYPE "PARTIAL HALO III"
AND 4 WERE - “PARTIAL HALO II”.
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FLARES to tm te c/p local. Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X / opt. J/m-2
20.03 0342 0056 0444 S14E35L203 M1.7/1F 1.6E-2 12010 II/1 IV/1 CME
22.03 0658 0702 0710 S10W71L277 M1.1/1F 2.2E-3 12011
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
17.03 1024 1209 S35E55L213 7
17.03 1149 1355 S31E21L247 6
20.03 0628 0729 S13W16L244 9
20.03 0629 0719 N17W07L235 10
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE AVERAGE AND THE LOW LE-
VELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH - N08L236 N00L230 S03L233 N00L240 12.03 1 SDO, SOHO,....
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 22.03/0030 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELDS. THE FOLLOWING SECTORAL BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH SHOULD PASS
17.02.

MARCH 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 MARCH
Wus 110 125 137 137 125 159 159
F10.7 136 138 149 151 153 155 157
Хbcg B5.9 B5.6 В7.5 В8.2 В6.1 В6.1 B7.1 GOES
Sp 530 520 630 880 810 980 890 mvh
N 1 3 1 3
IMF + +/- - - - -/+ + АСЕ
е>2 2.4E+5 4.9Е+4 3.5Е+4 5.7Е+4 3.5Е+4 6.2Е+4 6.1E+4 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 2 5 4 4 11 5 6 nT Ар
Dst nT KIOTO
Amsc 6 6 7 7 9 6 8 nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - a fluency in (electrons/cm2-day-sr) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE AND UNSETTLED.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS AS A WHOLE ARE EXPECTED UNSETTLED
AND QUIET. ONLY 25 - 26.03 GEOMAGNETIC STRENGTHENING BECAUSE OF DISTUR-
BANCE ARRIVAL FROM FLARE 22.03 IS POSSIBLE. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC
STORM NO MORE THAN 5%.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru