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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 08 - 14.12.2014,
Forecast on 15 - 22.12.2014,
Carrington Rotation 2157, 2158 (11.30.11; 8,61.12.2014)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LE-
VEL, HOWEVER IN THE LAST DAY OF THE PERIOD GREW TO THE HIGH.
ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W = 068+37/-22. ON
THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 4 - 9 SMALL
AND QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS.

NEXT WEEK EXPECTED THE HIGH AND AVERAGE LEVELS OF SUNSPOT AC-
TIVITY. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELA-
TIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT
WEEK IS EXPECTED W = 040+20/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL AT 13 AND 14.11, AND
THE LOW -IN OTHER DAYS. THERE ARE 3 EJECTIONS OF THE SOLAR FI-
LAMENTS. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED
>37 CME, ONE OF WHICH WAS THE "HALO" TYPE, ONE - "PARTIAL GALO
III" TYPE AND 2 - THE "PARTIAL GALO II" TYPE.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/Пp J/m-2
13.12 0513 0520 0525 S09E89L M1.5/ 6.4E-3 ????
14.12 1925 1933 2008 s19E44L238 M1.6/SF 7.8E-3 12242

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
09.12 >1349 <1433 N20E05L343 9
09.12 >2217 <1433 S18E12L335 10
10.12 >1030 <2210 S17E02L332 6
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT A LOW LEVEL, BUT SEPARATE
FLARES OF MIDDLE CLASSES ARE POSSIBLE.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end Е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
уH + N45L302 N40L292 N15L327 N22L293 14.12 4(7) G0 SDO, SOHO...
уH + N05L329 N02L279 S08L290 S02L293 16.12 7 G0 SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

AFTER 11.12/22 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDERY + /- THE EARTH HAS TO
PASS 25.12.

DECEMBER 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 DECEMBER
Wus 077 080 097 115 132 121 175
F10.7 133 140 150 148 154 160 166
иbcg ч5.7 B8.3 ч7.2 ч7.2 ч7.3 - ч8.3 GOES
Sp 860 510 670 780 850 890 860 mvh
N 1 2 1 2 4
IMF - - - -/+ + + + буе
Е>2 2.4E+8 1.2е+8 8.3е+7 1.5е+8 2.8е+7 1.3E+7 4.2E+7 GOES
Ie>2 9964 5719 2140 4943 2927 - 816 pfu GOES
Ap 17 17 10 8 8 30 11 nT
Dst -34 -39 -22 -17 -28 -44 -33 nT KIOTO
Amsc 19 9 9 8 7 27 13 nT IZMIRAN
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Е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE SMALL PROTON EVENT IS REGISTERED 13 - 15.12:
max 2 pfu - 14/1020 UT.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL BEGAN 7.11/0231 AND OBSERVED 8 - 13.12.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT VERY HIGH
LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS LAST WEEK WERE UNSETTLED AND QUIET ALL DAYS
EXCEPT 12.12 WHEN ON THE EARTH THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM WAS REGISTERED
(G1, Ams = 27, dur.= 15 h.) THE CENTER IN BOULDERE DATA AND (G0, Ams =
28, dur.= 12 h.) ACCORDING IZMIRAN DATA. SOURCE OF THIS GEOMAGNETIC
DISTURBANCE WERE THE 2 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS 9.11.

NEXT WEEK GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE. HOW-
EVER STRENGTHENING GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE ON DECEMBER, 16
WHEN CROSSING BY THE EARTH OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM FROM SOLAR NEAR EQU-
ATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. PROBABILITY OF THE MAGNETIC STORM NO MORE THAN 10%.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC http://www.sec.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru