Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20150413.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Apr 13 13:49:03 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:50:33 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: south pole

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 06 - 12.04.2015,
Forecast on 13 - 20.04.2015,
Carrington Rotation 2162 (27,93.03.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL ALL
DAYS. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=031+16/-11. ON THE VI-
SIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 2-5 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE
OF WHICH WAS LARGE SIZE.

ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN WERE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED FROM 2 TO
5 SUNSPOT GROUPS ONE OF WHICH AR12321 WAS THE BIG SIZE. IT APPEA-
RED FROM EAST LIMB 9.04 QUIET SUNSPOT GROUP WITH THE COMPLEX MAG-
NETIC CONFIGURATION. IT HAS EVERY CHANCE TO BECOME FLARE-ACTIVE
AR. AS THE SUNSPOT GROUP IS NEAR EAST LIMB THE ANALYSIS ITS DEVE-
LOPMENTS IT ISN'T POSSIBLE YET.

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT AVERAGE TO LOW LE-
VELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EX-
PECTED W = 030+10/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT MIDDLE LEVEL 8 AND 12.04 AND AT LOW LEVEL IN
OTHER DAYS. FOUR SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED > 38
CME FROM WHICH FOUR WERE "PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
08.04 1437 1443 1447 S14W04L214 M1.4/1B 4.0E-03 12320
12.04 0851 0950 >1044 N11E18L094 M1.1/ 4.3E-02 12321

DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
06.04 1829 1850 S15E15L213 9 C3.0 12320 CME
07.04 >0101 <1318 S48E01L214 14
07.04 >1627 <0535 N15E66L151 7
09.04 >0101 <1353 S06E21L167 7
--------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND THE AVERAGE (IM-
PROBABLE) LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
--------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH - S20L147 S60L089 Ps S32L169 14-15.04 >9 G1 SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 12.03/08 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. ON APRIL 9 AND 10 THE SECTOR SIGN REPEATEDLY CHANGED. THE
FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 27.04.

APRIL 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 APRIL
Wus 078 039 040 037 034 074 064
F10.7 126 111 106 113 115 123 134
Хbcg B4.1 B3.3 B2.0 B2.5 B4.0 B6.3 B8.3 GOES
Sp 220 280 170 150 140 330 720 msh
N 3
IMF + + + +/- -/+ +/- - АСЕ
е>2 1.7Е+7 2.7Е+7 2.3Е+7 6.4Е+6 5.2E+5 1.3E+5 4.4Е+5 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 7 5 3 12 35 20 7 nT
Dst -3 -43 -73 -20 nT КИОТО
Amsc 5 7 8 15 25 17 5 nT ИЗМИРАН
--------------------------------------------------------------------
е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL WAS NOT OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT MOSTLY QUITE AND UNSETTLED LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams=46, dur. = 15 h.) ACCORDING TO THE
CENTRE IN BOULDER AND MINOR (G1, Ams=29, dur. =21 h.) ARE REGISTERED
BY IZMIRAN DATA ON APRIL 9 - 10 AFTER ARRIVAL OF DISTURBANCE FROM SO-
LAR FILAMENT EJECTION 4.04 (CME 2348 UT). SECOND MINOR MAGNETIC STORM
(G0, Ams = 27, dur. = 12 h.) It is NOTED ONLY ACCORDING TO THE CENTRE
IN BOULDER. ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA THIS DISTURBANCE - THE SUBSTORM
(G0) LASTING 9 h. THE SOURCE OF THE LAST DISTURBANCE - THE HIGH-SPEED
STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM NEAR EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE. IN OTHER
DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET.


NEXT WEEK GROWTH OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE 14 - 15.04
WHEN THE EARTH PASSES THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM
POLAR CORONAL OF THE HOLE. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTER -
SIDC, BRUSSEL, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, MJSCJW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru