Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20150420.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Apr 20 12:23:46 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:50:37 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 13 - 19.04.2015,
Forecast on 20 - 27.04.2015,
Carrington RotationЫ 2162, 2163 (27,93.03; 24,21.04.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL ALL
DAYS. ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUM-
BER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS MADE W=050+35/-19. ON THE VI-
SIBLE DISK OF THE SUN CONSTANTLY OBSERVED 4-7 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE
OF WHICH WAS LARGE SIZE (AR12321) AND ONE - MIDDLE SIZE (AR11324).

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT AVERAGE TO LOW LE-
VELS. ESTIMATED, MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF RELATIVE SUN-
SPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS EX-
PECTED W = 030+20/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT A LOW LEVEL ALL DAYS, EXCEPT 14.04 - ON VERY
LOW. FOUR SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTIONS OCCURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BY DATA OF CORONOGRAPHS SOHO AND STEREO WERE OBSERVED > 32 CME FROM
WHICH TWO WERE "HALO" TYPE, ONE - "PARTIAL HALO III" TYPE AND TWO -
"PARTIAL HALO II" TYPE.

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
DSF to te c/p local. l in deg. Fl AR CME
16.04 0450 0833 S51W43L139 29
16.04 >1648 <0646 S26E66L030 13
18.04 >0113 <1310 N08W82L151 21
18.04 1340 1400 N08W15L085 7 1F/C5.2 12321 CME
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
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sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH - S12L074 S15L062 S25L078 S20L084 20.04 2 G1 SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory;
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation;
A-active geomagnetic condition.
---------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 11.04/08 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH HAS TO PASS
27.04.

APRIL 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 APRIL
Wus 068 097 085 085 093 114 142
F10.7 141 147 155 150 150 148 152
Хbcg B7.8 B6.6 B6.7 B7.5 B5.4 B5.3 B5.4 GOES
Sp 740 1290 1150 920 880 840 880 msh
N 2 1 1 1
IMF - - - - - - - АСЕ
е>2 7.0Е+5 7.4Е+5 6.1Е+5 2.7Е+5 5.9E+7 1.5E+8 2.3Е+8 GOES
Ie>2 pfu GOES
Ap 8 15 30 32 23 13 9 nT
Dst -10 -41 -56 -81 -71 -37 -31 nT КИОТО
Amsc 10 16 38 32 17 16 14 nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THEN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT BEGAN 16.
04/1330UT AND WAS OBSERVED 16 - 19.04.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 20 - 24.04.

The GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS WAS ACTIVE AND HIGH ALL DAYS, EXCEPT 13.04
14.04 IT WAS OBSERVED PLANETARY 9 h. MAGNETIC SUBSTORM (G1). THE SOUR-
CE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WAS THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND OF
LOW-LATITUDE PART OF VERY LARGE SUB POLAR CORONAL HOLE OF THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE OF THE SUN. The MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G2, Ams = 41, dur.
= 48 h.) It was REGISTERED on APRIL 15- 17 according to the CENTRE IN
BOULDER. ACCORDING TO IZMIRAN DATA IT WERE TWO MODERATE MAGNETIC
STORMS: (G2, Ams=46, dur. = 21 h.) 15 - 16.04 AND (G2, Ams = 42, dur.
= 15 h.) 16 - 17.04. SOURCES OF THIS LONG GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IT
IS STILL UNKNOWN.

NEXT WEEK THE GROWTH OF GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE 20-22.04
WHEN THE EARTH PASSES THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM
SOUTHERN CORONAL HOLE. ON APRIL 22 TO THE EARTH CME FROM SOLAR FILA-
MENT EJECTA 19.04 WHICH WAS FOLLOWED BY ENDURING SOLAR FLARE CLASS 1F
/C5.2 AND CME "HALO" TYPE HAS TO COME. IN OTHER DAYS THE GEOMAGNETIC
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA
OF NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
OF THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE -
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
OF THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru