Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2015/obzor20151109.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Nov 9 12:44:26 2015 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:51:59 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: annular solar eclipse

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 02 - 08.11.2015,
Forecast on 09 - 16.11.2015,
Carrington Rotation 2170 (31,87.11.2015)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN REMAINED AT THE MIDDLE LEVEL.
ESTIMATED, WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN
THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) WAS W = 51+6/-9 (Wn = 82+9/-15). ON
THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK HAVE BEEN OBSERVED 3-5 SUNSPOT GROUPS, ONE
BIG SIZE, AR12443 (N05L316, Sp = 670 mvh, M/3), WERE CONSTANTLY OB-
SERVED.

THE MIDDLE LEVEL OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON
THE NEXT WEEK. AS ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE
OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE
NEXT WEEK IS W = 040+15/-20.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT A MIDDLE LEVEL 4.11, AT VERY LOW -5 AND 8.11
AND THE LOW IN OTHER DAYS. THERE WAS 1 SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OC-
CURRENCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND
STEREO CORONOGRAPHS >22 CMEs, ONE OF TYPE II (angular width 180 -
270 deg.) AND TWO OF TYPE II (angular width 90 - 180 deg.) HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
04.11 0320 0326 0334 N15W64L027 M1.9/1N 5.2E-03 12445 II/2 CME
04.11 1155 1203 >1219 N12W73L027 M2.5/1N 7.3E-03 12445 II/1
04.11 <1327 1352 >1352 N09W04L316 M3.7/2B 5.9E-02 12443 II/2 IV/1 CME

DSF to te координаты l в град. Fl AО CME
05.11 1404 1622 N02W48L344 18
----------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT THE LOW AND AVERAGE LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end EE R G Observatories
CH + N12L359 S10L349 S27L009 N08L016 2-3.11 3 SDO, SOHO...
CH + N55L238 N36L216 N08L270 N35L298 08.11 5 SDO, SOHO...
R - solar rotations; KP - KIT PEAK solar observatory.
EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the Earth's environment.
G - geoeffectivity in last solar rotation.
A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 1.11/19 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY
MAGNETIC FIELD, HOWEVER 2-4, 7 AND 8.11 SIGN OF SECTOR REPEATED-
LY CHANGED. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO
PASS 11.11.

NOVEMBER 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 NOVEMBER
Wus 094 095 093 075 086 079 070
F10.7 122 124 114 110 115 115 108
Хbcg В6.2 В5.0 B5.7 B3.7 В5.4 B4.2 B3.3 GOES
Sp 850 780 580 420 410 460 360 msh
N 1 1 1 2
IMF +/-/+ +/- -/+ + + +/- -/+ АСЕ
е>2 3.3Е+5 7.7Е+5 7.6Е+6 1.8Е+8 4.3E+8 1.3E+8 1.3Е+8 GOES
Ie>2 4404 7904 21557 5714 4276 pfu GOES
Ap 7 34 34 16 15 42 13 nT BOULDER
Dst -35 -40 -31 -22 -88 -25 nT nT
Amsc 8 30 29 15 14 25 21 nT IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------
е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS BE-
GINNING AT 04.11/1405 UT AND WAS OBSERVED 5 - 8.11.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS EXPECTED 9 - 14.11.

THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION EXCEPT 2.11 WAS ALL DAYS ACTIVE. THE FIRST
MODERATE MAGNETIC STORM (G1, Ams=59, dur. = 36 h.) AСCCORDING TO THE
CENTER IN BOULDER DATA AND MINOR (G1, Ams= 33, dUR. = 11 h.) BY DATA
IZMIRAN IS REGISTERED 3-4.11 DURING PASSING BY THE EARTH OF THE HIGH
SPEED STREAM OF THE SOLAR WIND FROM TRANS-EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE OF
OF POSITIVE POLARITY. SECOND MODERATED (G2, Ams=42, dur. = 27 h.) ON
DATA OF THE CENTER IN BOULDER And MINOR (G1, Ams=28, dur.= 27 h.) AC-
CORDING IZMIRAN DATAIS OBSERVED 6-7.11 AS REACTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT
TO ARRIVAL OF THE INTERPLANETARY SHOCK (SSC - 06/1825 UT) FROM SOLAR
FLARE ON NOVEMBER, 4 2B/M3.7. 8.11 THE MINOR MAGNETIC STORM IS AGAIN
NOTED (G1, Ams=38, dur. = 12 h.) ACCORDING OF IZMIRAN DATA AND (G0,
Ams=27, dur. = 12 h.) ACCORDING TO THE CENTER IN BOULDERE.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.


HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru