Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2016/obzor20160307.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Mar 7 16:17:41 2016 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:52:37 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: moon

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THE RELATIVE MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER ON FEBRUARY 2016 HAS MADE
Wfeb. = 34.3, 57.2 (new)
THAT GIVES FOR 79 MONTHS (2015, AUGUST) DEVELOPMENT CURRENT 24 CYC-
LE OF SOLAR ACTIVITY THE SMOOTHED MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER
W*aug. = 39.8; 66.3 - (in new system);
W*july = 41.0; 68.2 - (in new system);

- On July 1, 2015 Centre in Brussels moved to a new system of cal-
culation the relative number of sunspots and practically all of the
values were replaced throughout the numbered series of Wolf numbers
(see link). While there is addictive, I recalculated (0.6) to the
old system, but only W*, and present below the new values for the
minimum and maximum of 24 cycles SA.
Almost all the work using smooth W* have to lead to a new system,
if it remains.

THE BEGINNING OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE - I 2009 with W*=1.8; (2.2)
THE TIME OF THE CURRENT CYCLE MAXIMUM-IV 2014, - Wmax = 82;(116.4)
THE END OF 24 SOLAR CYCLE (THE POINT OF MINIMUM) - IV - VI 2020;

THE INTERNATIONAL DAILY VALUE OF RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER FOR 2016,
FEBRUARY ACCORDING DATA OF 79 SOLAR OBSERVATORIES HAS MADE:

1.. 45 6.. 78 11.. 85 16.. 43 21.. 47 26.. 48
2.. 53 7.. 87 12.. 66 17.. 40 22.. 34 27.. 28
3.. 82 8.. 94 13.. 38 18.. 37 23.. 37 28.. 37
4..108М 9.. 83 14.. 50 19.. 46 24.. 34 29.. 46
5..108М 10.. 80 15.. 51 20.. 50 25.. 25m

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF OBSERVED RADIO FLUX OF THE 10 cm (2800 MHz ON
2016, FEBRUARY
F10.7feb. = 103.6

THE MONTHLY MEAN OF GEOMAGNETIC Ap-index ON 2016, FEBRUARY
Ap feb. = 9.9
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Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 22 - 28.02.2016,
Forecast on 29.02 - 06.03.2016,
Carrington Rotation 2174 (18,17.02.2016)

SUNSPOT-FORMED ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WERE AT THE AVERAGE LEVEL.CAL-
CULATED, AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT RELATIVE NUMBER IN THE INTERNA-
TIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD MADE W=37+20/-14 (Wn=59+42/-22).
ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 3 - 7 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS WE-
RE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED.

THE MIDDLE LEVEL OF THE SUNSPOT-FORMED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON THE
NEXT WEEK. ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE
RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT
WEEK IS W = 030+15/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE VERY LOW LEVEL ALL DAY, EXCEPT 4.03 - THE
LOW LEVEL. FIVE EJECTIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. AC-
CORDING TO SOHO AND STEREO CORONOGRAPHS DATA >17 CMEs, ONE WAS "PAR-
TIALE HALO II" TYPE (angular width 90 - 180 deg.).

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FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
DSF to te Localization l в град. Fl AО CME/to
01.03 0742 0845 N16E60L149 30 CME/0824/II
01.30 0820 0839 N20E90L117 17
02.03 2030 2200 N07W20L200 8
03.03 1459 S05E02L165 6 CME/1712
03.03 2258 SW ?
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NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end е end S end W end Sch EE R G Observatories
CH - N16L184 N14L181 N06L183 N12L189 n/d 4.02 1 SDO, SOHO..
CH - S23L109 S21L100 S31L107 S25L114 n/d 10.02 2 G0 SDO, SOHO..
Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
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FROM 5.03/22 UT THE EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS 11.03.

FEBRUARY 29 01 02 03 04 05 06 MARCH
Wus 044 039 065 050 095 068 065
F10.7 091 097 098 099 101 096 096
Хbcg В1.5 В1.6 B1.7 B1.2 В1.5 B1.2 В1.4 GOES
Sp 160 140 220 150 190 180 140 msh
N 1 4 3 1
IMF + + + + + +/- - АСЕ
е>2 2.3Е+7 5.2Е+6 2.8Е+6 6.5Е+6 1.0E+7 8.9E+6 5.4Е+6 GOES
Ie>2 472 554 172 167 pfu GOES
Ap 4 9 7 8 4 4 49 nT BOULDER
Dst -10 -96 nТ KIOTO
Amsc 6 11 8 6 6 4 29 nT IZMIRAN
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е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary orbits
in days according to GOES 15 in (electrons/cm2-s-sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS NOT
OBSERVED.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY REMAINED QUIET TO THE MIDDLE OF DAY 6.03
WHEN HAS BEEN NOTED MAJOR (G3, Ams= 65, dur.= 18 h.), ACCORDING TO THE
CENTER IN BOULDERE, AND (G2, Ams= 51, dur.= 12 h.) TO IZMIRAN DATA MAG-
NETIC STORM. DISTURBATION FROM EJECTION OF VERY LARGE SOLAR FILAMENTS
1.03 BECAME ITS SOURCE WITH THE HIGH PROBABILITY. GROUND OBSERVATORIES
HAVE NOT REGISTERED (perhaps, at the moment) THE SUDDEN COMMENCEMENT,
HOWEVER BY DATA ACE (especially in a magnetic field) SUCH IMPULSE IS
LOOKED THROUGH ABOUT 11 h UT.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUIET.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru