Документ взят из кэша поисковой машины. Адрес оригинального документа : http://www.izmiran.rssi.ru/services/saf/archive/en/2016/obzor20160328.en.txt Дата изменения: Mon Mar 28 13:20:09 2016 Дата индексирования: Sun Apr 10 00:52:50 2016 Кодировка: koi8-r Поисковые слова: m 13

Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
Highlights on 14 - 20.03.2016,
Forecast on 21 - 28.03.2016,
Carrington Rotations 2174, 2175 (18,17.02; 16,50.03.2016)

SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS ON THE LOW LEVEL. CALCU-
LATED, AVERAGE VALUE OF SUNSPOT RELATIVE NUMBER IN THE INTERNATI-
ONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE PERIOD MADE W = 13+2/-5 (Wn = 20+4/-8).
ON THE VISIBLE DISK OF THE SUN 2-1 SMALL QUITE SUNSPOT GROUPS WE-
RE CONSTANTLY OBSERVED.

NEXT WEEK IT IS EXPECTED LOW AND, AFTER 1.04 WHEN TO THE VISIBLE
DISK OF THE SUN THERE IS A SUNSPOT GROUP (~N05), THE AVERAGE LE-
VEL OF SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY. ESTIMATED, THE MOST LIKELY WEEK-
LY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER IN THE INTERNATI-
ONAL SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W = 020+15/-10.

FLARE ACTIVITY WAS AT THE LOW LEVEL 21.03, AND AT THE VERY LOW -
ON OTHER DAYS. THERE WERE FOUR SOLAR FILAMENT EJECTION OCCURREN-
CES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACCORDING TO THE DATA FROM SOHO AND STE-
REO CORONOGRAPHS, >14 CMEs.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES to tm te c/p local.Class E(1-8A) AR RII/IV CME
X-ray/оp J/m-2
DSF to te Localization l в град. Fl AО CME/to
22.03 >0055 >1826 S25E66L215 26
24.03 1015 N11W01L255 11
24.03 2054 2200 N20W11L265 6
26.03 1404 1554 N24W47L275 5
----------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK FLARE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE LOW AND VERY LOW LEVEL.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
sign N end E end S end W end Sch EE R G Observatories
CH + N45L285 N40L280 N15L315 N30L345 65000 21.03 10 SDO, SOHO..
CH + Pn S10L231 S21L236 N30L266 196100 27.03 SDO, SOHO..
Sch - CH Square in Mm*2 (in square megameters) near the central meri-
dian on http://sdowww.lmsal.com/suntoday/; n/d - no data;
R - solar rotations; EE-date of possible geomag. disturbance in the
Earth's environment. G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on
the middle latitudes. A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

FROM 21.03/15 UT THE EARTH IS IN "+" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAG-
NETIC FIELD. THE FOLLOWING SECTOR BOUNDARY +/- THE EARTH HAS TO PASS
02.03.

МАRCH 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 МАRCH
Wus 025 013 014 025 024 023 023
F10.7 089 087 087 087 086 086 088
Хbcg A8.3 В1.3 B1.3 A8.6 A7.5 A6.4 A7.6 GOES
Sp 220 240 210 310 280 270 270 msh
N 1
IMF -/+ + + + + + + АСЕ
е>2 2.4Е+7 5.3Е+7 7.6Е+6 4.5Е+6 8.4E+6 1.5E+7 5.0Е+6 GOES
Ie>2 696 1237 932 129 175 329 400 pfu GOES
Ap 8 8 11 7 5 2 12 nT BOULDER
Dst nТ KIOTO
Amsc 7 7 9 9 8 7 13 nT IZMIRAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------
е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN
AT 16.03/1300 UT AND WAS ODSERVED 22.03.

THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT OF VERY
HIGH LEVEL IS NOT EXPECTED.

GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION WAS UNSETTLED AND QUIET. AS EXPECTED, POSITIVE
CORONAL THE HOLE DURING THE PRESENT PERIOD WASN'T GEOEFFECTIVE THOUGH
IT IMPACT ON THE ENVIRONMENT ACCORDING TO s/sh ACE DATA IS ACCURATELY
LOOKED FROM 27.03.

NEXT WEEK THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION IS EXPECTED UNSETTLED AND QUITE.

HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE,
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3,
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA http://www.izmiran.ru