Risk Assessment

Proper Risk and Hazard management involves a search for the best route between social benefit and environmental risk. Yet at the same time, the species does invent this:

Responsible Environmental Management (an oxymoron?) requires long term vision. Is this possible within the framework of exponential growth? --> The Dot War

Risk Assessment has 5 identified, interrelated components:

1. Risk Identification and Characterization --> needs to be done objectively. When this is done surprising results sometimes occur.

2. Risk Estimation and Quantification of the Hazard:
   • Magnitude
   • Spatial Scale
   • Duration of the event
   • short and long term impacts
   • intensity of adverse consequences
   • Probability (very important to do this correctly)
   • causal agents

3. Risk Evaluation --> Judging the significance and acceptability of the risk --> who is the judge? how much should an (un)informed public participate. Compensation channels need to be clearly defined.

4. Risk Communication --> poor media portrayal; must be done objectively

5. Risk Decision and Management: --> Proactive or reactive? Intervention or non-intervention
   
   How the Government Does this
   

   Application of these principles to different mechanism of Energy Generation and Transport

   More Risk Assessment
   • What risks do you evaluate?
   • Priority: Real or Perceived Risk: If perceived, how do you correct it?
   • How reliable is the risk analysis?
   • How safe is safe? (Ford Pintos)
   • How much will it cost to reduce the risk to an acceptable level?
   • Who determines what is acceptable?
   • What is the most effective method of risk reduction?
   • Who is responsible for the costs of Risk reduction?

   Kinds of Risks:
   • Natural Risks
   • Elevated Risks --> above naturally occurring ones (e.g. radiation)
   • Comparative risks --> comparing risks of a specific action with risks of other commonly known actions
   • Balanced Risk --> risk of chosen action compared to risks of alternative actions that might achieve the same benefits (e.g. nutrasweet/saccharine)
   Overriding factors remain:
   • Cost-benefit
   • proper risk estimation!
   • inform the public objectively!!! (shoot all journalists now!)

   Four Stages of Risk Communication

   1. Stonewall Stage --> Ignore the Public
   2. Missionary Stage --> One-way communication --> show the public why you're right and they're wrong
   3. Dialogue Stage --> Learn from the public the ways in which they're right and you're wrong
   4. Organizational Stage --> Build the foundation for dialogue so that it becomes natural

   Risk Communication Table

   

   Probability in Risk Management: The likelihood that, for N random samples of events, an undesired outcome will occur. If the probability is low, then N must be large to have one event. This point is often forgotten when that one event occurs.

   Comparative Probability of Death by doing different activities:

   Units of deaths per billion with one hour of risk exposure:

   • Giving This lecture: < 1
   • Being vaccinated: 1.3
   • Living in an area where snakes are present: 3.8
   • Radiation exposure of world population to a local nuclear conflict: 5.0
   • Rail or bus travel in USA: 10.0
   • Rail or bus travel in Britain: 50
   • Child asleep in crib: 140
   • Being struck by lightning: 200
   • Amateur Boxing: 450
   • Climbing Stairs: 550
   • Coal Mining: 910
   • Hunting: 950
   • Automobile Travel: 1200
   • Air travel: 1450
   • Cigarette Smoking: 2600
   • Small boat boating: 3000
   • Swimming: 3650
   • Motorcycle riding: 6280
   • Serving in Vietnam: 7935
   • Canoeing: 10000
   • Motorcycle racing: 35000
   • Alpine Mountaineering: 40000
   • Professional Boxing: 70000
   • Birth: 80000

   One in a million risk of death from the following:

   • 1.5 cigarettes
   • driving 50 files
   • flying 250 miles
   • 1.5 minutes of rock climbing
   • 6 minutes of canoeing
   • 20 minutes being a man aged 60
   • 1-2 weeks of typical factory work
   

6. Add your questions or comments about this particular lecture

   Previous Lecture Next Lecture Course Page