... Archives . ... I watched a movie in which one of the characters said, ? country A has nukes with 80% chance ? ... From Bayesian perspective, Pr(p|D) ~ L(D|p) pi(p), properly choosing likelihoods and priors, one can estimate the chance of e coli infection and uncertainty. ... In other words, those computed chances highly depend on the choice of model and are very subjective. ... In order to know the chance of the model (A*B+C)*D, like A has nuke with p%, one should not rely on p-values. ...