Äîêóìåíò âçÿò èç êýøà ïîèñêîâîé ìàøèíû. Àäðåñ îðèãèíàëüíîãî äîêóìåíòà : http://chronos.msu.ru/old/RREPORTS/mossbridge_tressoldi_utts-meta_analiz.pdf Äàòà èçìåíåíèÿ: Sat Dec 14 13:24:41 2013 Äàòà èíäåêñèðîâàíèÿ: Fri Feb 28 20:44:31 2014 Êîäèðîâêà:

Mossbringe et al.

-

, : -
Julia Mossbridge, Department of Psychology, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, USA PatrizioTressoldi Dipartimento di Psicologia Generale, UniversitÞ di Padova, Padova, Italy Jessica Utts Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine, CA, USA
: Rufin VanRullen, Centre de Recherche Cerveau et Cognition, France : Rufin VanRullen, Centre de Recherche Cerveau et Cognition, France Arnaud Delorme, Centre de Recherche Cerveau et Cognition, France Sofia Gameiro, Cardiff University, UK * : Julia Mossbridge, Department of Psychology, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL 60208, USA. e-mail: j-mossbridge@ northwestern.edu : , , , , : , , , ,

- 26 , 1978 2010 , : - , - , . , , : (1) , ( ). : , , , , , . . . ( : =0.21, 95% CI=0.15­0.27, z =6.9, p <2.710-12; , =0.21, 95% CI=0.13­0.29, z=5.3, p<5.710-8; ). , . , «» (>0,05) ­ 87 . , , , . , , , () . : pre-stimulus activity, anticipatory physiology, temporal processing, psychophysiology, presentiment, predictive processing

www.frontiersin.org

2012 / 3/ 390


Mossbringe et al.

-

- . , , , , . , - . . , , ­ . 40 32 , , . , . , , , , , . , . , , , -. , -, , , , . : (1) (2) www.frontiersin.org

, ( ). , , , ; , apriori ( ) , , . , , (, , ). , , . « », , ( ) ( ) . , ( , , , , , , ) , . " " ( , 0,5-10 , ). , ( , ). "" . 2012 / 3/ 390


Mossbringe et al. - , , - . - (Lang et al., 1993, 1998; Cuthbert et al., 1996, 2000). , . , , , , , , , , , . , ( ): . "" ( ) ; , ; . , , , - . , . - , , , . , , . , . ­ , , 1978 2010 , , , . - , , (), , . , , , (, , ). : , , , , , ( ). , , - . , , - , - , , - . , www.frontiersin.org 2012 / 3/ 390


Mossbringe et al. - . , . ( ) , .. - . , , , , , , ( , , , , - , , 1978-2010 . ). , , PubMed, PsycInfo, GoogleScholar, OAIster OCLC, t z . d Journal of Parapsychology, (RosenthalandRubin), , (DeanRadin RollinMcCraty) . . : pre sentiment+anomalous,anticipatory+physiology+anom alous, , "expectationbias"+psi,"expectationbias"+presentimen : t, "failuretoreplicate" presentiment. , . , , . . , (McCraty et al., 2004a; May et al., 2005; Radin and Lobach, 2007; Radin and Borges, 2009), , (). . , .. , , , . . , -. () , , . (. 2,25 6,75 . ). , , . , www.frontiersin.org 2012 / 3/ 390


Mossbringe et al. - . , . ­ -, . , , , . , , z t , , , . . , , , , ( , 2:1 - . ). -, , , ( 1) . , , ( 1). , , -. , , , , . , . , .. : , , , . . ­ , , , , . , . , , , : r = 0,49 95% Cl . = 0,12 ­ 0,82. - , . , , . , 1 , , www.frontiersin.org 2012 / 3/ 390


Mossbringe et al.

- , (1 = , 2 = 3, 3 = ); , , , (1 = , ; 2 = , , ; 3 = , , ) , , (1 = ; 2 = -; 3 = .4) , (1). : + 0,75 + 0,5 5 . , , . , . ( 1 ). , , . , , . 2012 / 3/ 390

, . : www.frontiersin.org


Mossbringe et al. - . , , - (), (Fz, Cz, , and Pz; Bierman and van Ditzhuyzen, 2006) , (Oz; Radin and Lobach, . 2007). , , , , (Dalkvist et al., 2002; Wackermann, 2002) . , , , , , , . , - . , , , . , , , (. ). , , , t z , , , . , , . , , : = Xe-Xc/ 5, ( , - ) ( - ) , , X- , (). , - . , , , (. , ) (1) . , , , , t t , r ­ , n . , , (2) , , , (Radin and Borges, , 2009) . . , (Tressoldi et al., 2009) www.frontiersin.org 2012 / 3/ 390


Mossbringe et al. - n . , , ( , ) , ( , ) . , 0,5, . , . , , . , () ( ). , , 1/ n, , 95 % . , d +/- 2. , , r = 0,95. = , . , -, , . . t z, , , -: .( Borenstein et al., 2009) , , z, , t-. , , t z, , , . . , , t z , , z . ( ) , , , , , . , , . , z . z, . , ( ). t z ( , , F 2 ) . . , , - , www.frontiersin.org 2012 / 3/ 390


Mossbringe et al. - , , , ----. , - 0,9 , , = 0,01, , = 0,002 ( , . , . - -, (21 Comprehensive Meta-Analysis v 2.2. 26 , . 1 ) - , , R 2.11.1 (R-Development-Core , Team, 2011). - , . . . , -, , , ( 1, ), . , -, , . . , , Radin (1997) , - . - , z. , . , z, , - , . , : . . , 49 , , . ( ) , 23 . , - . ( 2) , Vannini andDiCorpo, 2008), , .. (1) . ( , ) (2) , . 4 (2-3) , www.frontiersin.org 2012 / 3/ 390


Mossbringe et al. - , ­ . . , -, , - (Bierman, 1997), * : = 0,21, 95% I ­ 0,15-0,27, z= 6,9, p < 2,7 x 10-12; : (Radin and Borges, 2009). = 0,21 , 95% ,CI = 0,13 ­ 0,29 , .. z= 5,3 , p < 5,7x10-8]. , -. , -0,138 0,67. , ( - , ) , I2 =27,4 , Q = 34,4 , p > 0,098. , , (Bierman and Scholte, 2002). ­ , , - . . ( ) , - . 2 , - , - , . , .. . , 26 ( 1) . , , . , - , .

www.frontiersin.org

2012 / 3/ 390


Mossbringe et al.

-

. , . , . , , , ( , ; . . , (>13) (<13) . - , , 3 www.frontiersin.org

/ , . , , , ( 3) , ( Pearson r = 0,21 95% CI = - 0,20 ­ 0,53) , , ( ) -. ( ) . , , , , , . 26 2 : , (N = 19) , (N = 7). , , , , , , ( 4). , / , . 4 2012 / 3/ 390


Mossbringe et al.

- , , , . , , , , , , - , , , . -0,18. , -. -, , . , . . , , , , , .. , , , . , , , , . , , " ", , - . . , , . -, "----", , , . - ( ), , , , , . . , 2007 (Bierman) , ( , , , , , , ( 0,26) , , - . . , , , ( 5,). www.frontiersin.org 2012 / 3/ 390


Mossbringe et al. - , , . 26 , , , ( - 95% ,) , . , , , "" (p > 0,05). . 256 . , 87 , , 0,05 ( 0,001 ) . , -, . , . 5 , .. . , , , ( . ) , , - , . ( 1) , -. , , , , , www.frontiersin.org , "" , 87 . - , , , - ( ). , , . , 12 , ( ), , 7 , , 2012 / 3/ 390


Mossbringe et al. - . , - ( ). , - - . . , . , , -, ( . ( ). ) . , , , , . , . . , , , , . , . , , , . , , , .. , , . . , , - , . ? , . , , , , , , , . , . / , , , - . , , , www.frontiersin.org 2012 / 3/ 390


Mossbringe et al. - , . . , , , , . . , : , , - 0,1 Hz . , ( , - , , ) . , , . , - . 26 , , . , . 0,01 Hz, , . , 3 , , , . ­ , 0,01 Hz. , , - , . , . , - - , , , ­ , , . , . , , . , , . ( 6,). , . - . , , , , . , . www.frontiersin.org 2012 / 3/ 390


Mossbringe et al. - , ­ , . . ­ , , , . , , , , , , , -. , , , ( , -), , , ( . , ) . , . ( , , ) , 1978 2010 , , , , , , ( ), , , . . , . , , , , . - , - . , . , , . , , , , , . ( , ), . , . , , , , . . , , , ( ). , . . . . 6 www.frontiersin.org 2012 / 3/ 390


Mossbringe et al.

- , . , , -, - , . , . . , , 14 , . 2000 . , , . , . , , . , , . , , , - . , , , - . 0,021 , 0,343. . , , , , . , , . , , , . , , , . , , , , . ( , , ). , , , - , . , , www.frontiersin.org 2012 / 3/ 390


Mossbringe et al. - ­ , . . , , , . , , , . - , , , . , , , . , , , .. , 500 . , . , , , . , - . , , , . . , , - . , , , . , , , , , . , . , . , . , : (1) , , (2) . , , "--" - . . , , , , , www.frontiersin.org 2012 / 3/ 390


Mossbringe et al. - . , . . , , ( ), . . , - , Bial Foundation , . , . . Dean Radin, Rollin McCraty, Norman Don, Ed May, Ed Mod- estino, , George Dragoi, Barbara Spellman. . ,

1

, , « , ». , - , .
2

1978 , .. , (Hartwell 1987) 2010, .. ­ 2011. 2011 2012, , , .. , 2010.
3

, , , . , , , , , , .
4

, , - , . ,
5

, , , . , , , , . , , -.

: AmericanPsychologicalAssociation. (2010). The PublicationManualof the AmericanPsychologicalAssoci- ation, 6thEdn,W ashington,DC: AmericanPsychologicalAssocia- tion. AmericanPsychologicalAssociation PublicationandCommunication BoardW orkingGrouponJournal ArticleReportingStandards.(2008). Reportingstandardsforresearchin psychology:whydoweneedthe m? W hatmighttheybe?Am.Psychol. 63, 839­851. Bem,D.J.,andHonorton,C.(1994). Doespsiexist?Replicableevidence forananomalousprocessofinfor- mationtransfer. Psychol.Bull. 115, 4­18. Bierman,D.(1997).IntuitionI,II,III, IV,andV.Unravelingvariablescon- tributingtothepresentimenteffect. Paperpresentedatthe40thConventionoftheParapsychologicalAssocia- tion, Brighton. Bierman,D.(2000).Anomalousbase- line effectsinmainstreamemotion researchusingpsychophysiological variables. J. Parapsychol. 64, 239­ 240. Bierman,D.(2007).fMRIandphoto emissionstudyofpresentiment:the roleof"coherence"inretrocausal processes.BialFoundationProject Report34/04. Bierman,D.,andvanDitzhuyzen,J. (2006). "Anomalousslowcortical componentsinaslotmachinetask," in Proceedingsofthe49thAnnual ParapsychologicalAssociation, Stock- holm, 5­19. Bierman,D.,andRadin,D.(1998). Consciousandanomalousnon- consciousemotionalprocesses:a reversalofthearrowoftime? PaperpresentedattheTowarda ScienceofConsciousnessConference, Tuscon. Bierman,D.,andScholte,H.(2002).A fMRI brainimagingstudyofpresen- timent. J. ISLIS 20, 380­389.

www.frontiersin.org

2012 / 3/ 390


Mossbringe et al.

-

Borenstein,M.,Hedges,L.,Higgins,J., and Rothstein,H.(2005). Compre- hensiveMeta-Analysis(Version2). Englewood,NJ:Biostat. Borenstein,M.,Hedges,L.,Higgi ns,J., and Rothstein,H.(2009). Introduc- tiontoMeta-Analysis. W estSussex: JohnW iley. Broughton,R.(2004)."Exploringthe reliabilityofthe"presentiment" effect,"in Proceedingsofthe47th ConventionoftheParapsychological Association ,Vienna,15­24. Casati,F.,Marchese,M.,Mirylenka, K., andRagone,A.(2010).Techni- cal Report#DISI-10-014.Trento: DepartmentofInformationEngi- neersUniversityofTrento. Cuthbert,B.N.,Bradley,M.M.,and Lang,P.J.(1996).Probingpicture perception:activationandemotion. Psychophysiology 33, 103­111. Cuthbert,B.N.,Schupp,H.T.,Bradley, M. M.,Birbaumer,N.,andLang, P.J.(2000).Brainpotentialsin affectivepictureprocessing:covari- ationwithautonomicarousaland affectivereport. Biol.Psychol. 52, 95­111. Dalkvist,J.,W esterlund,J.,andBierman, D.(2002)."Acomputationalexpec- tationbiasasrevealedbysimulationsofpresentimentexperiments," in Proceedingsofthe45thAnnual ConventionoftheParapsychological Association , Paris,62­79. Don,N.,McDonough,B.,andW arren, C. (1998).Event-relatedpotentials (ERP) indicatorsofunconsc ious PSI: areplicationusingsubjectsuns- electedforPSI. J. Parapsychol. 62, 127­145. Dragoi,G.,andTonegawa,S.(2011). Preplayoffutureplacecellsequences byhippocampalcellularassemblies. Nature 469, 397­401. Duval,S.,andTweedie,R.(2000).Trim - and-fill:Asimplefunnel-plot-based methodoftestingandadjustingfor publicationbiasinmeta-analysis. Biometrics 56, 455­463. Ergenoglu,T.,Demiralp,T.,Bayrak taroglu,Z.,Ergen,M.,Beydagi, H., andUresin,Y.(2004).Alpha rhythmoftheEEGmodulatesvisual detectionperformanceinhumans. BrainRes.Cogn.BrainRes. 20, 8. Gillin,M.,Lapira,F.,McCraty,R., Bradly,R.,Atkinson,M.,Simp- son,D.,etal.(2007).Beforecog- nition:theactivecontributionof the heart/ANStointuitivedecision making asmeasuredonrepeatentre- preneursintheCambridgetech- nolopol. RegionalFrontiersofEntre- preneurshipResearch2007:4thInter- nationalAustralianGraduateSchool ofEntrepreneurship(AGSE)Entre- preneurshipResearch, Queensland, 67­81. Haggard,P.,andEimer,M.(1999).On the relationbetweenbrainpoten- tialsandtheawarenessofvolun- tarymovements. Exp.BrainRes. 126, 128­133. Hartwell,J.(1978).Contingentnegative variationasanindexofprecognitive information. Eur.J.Parapsychol. 2, 83­103. Hedges,L.V.,andPigott,T.D.(2001). Thepowerofstatisticaltestsinmeta- analysis. Psychol.Methods 6, 203­ 217. Hinterberger,T.,Studer,P.,JÄger,M., Haverty-Stacke,C.,andW alach,H. (2006). "Theslide-showpresentimenteffectdiscoveredinbrainelec- tricalactivity",in Proceedingsofthe 49th AnnualParapsychologicalAsso- ciation, Stockholm,57­70. Huedo-Medina,T.B.,Sanchez-Meca, J.,Marin-Martinez,F.,andBotella, J.(2006).Assessingheterogeneity in meta-analysis:QstatisticorI2 index? Psychol.Methods 11, 193­206. Lang,P.J.,Bradley,M.M.,Fitzsim - mons,J.R.,Cuthbert,B.N.,Scott, J.D.,Moulder,B.,etal.(1998). Emotionalarousalandactivationof the visualcortex:anfMRIanalysis. Psychophysiology 35, 199­210. Lang,P.J.,Greenwald,M.K.,Bradley, M. M.,andHamm,A.O.(1993). Lookingatpictures:affective,facial, visceral,andbehavioralreactions. Psychophysiology 30, 261­273. Lehman,D.,Pizzagalli,D.,G ianotti,L., Faber,P.,W ackermann,J.,Tanaka, H., etal.(2000).Brainelectriccorre- latesofprecognition. J. Psychophys- iol. 35, 42. Lehman,D.,Pizzagalli,D.,Gianotti,L., Faber,P.,W ackermann,J.,Tanaka, H., etal.(2001).Brainelectricstates beforecorrectlyandbeforeincor- rectlyguessedrandomevents. Brain Topogr. 12, 299. Libet,B.,Gleason,C.A.,W right,E.W ., and Pearl,D.K.(1983).Timeofcon- scious intentiontoactinrelationto onsetofcerebralactivity(readiness- potential):theunconsciousinitia- tionofafreelyvoluntaryact. Brain 106, 623­642. Lithari,C.,Frantzidis,C.A.,Papadelis, C., Vivas,A.B.,Klados,M. A., Kourtidou-Papadeli,C.,etal. (2010). Arefemalesmoreresponsive toemotionalstimuli?Aneurophys - iologicalstudyacrossarousaland valencedimensions. BrainTopogr. 23, 27­40. Mathewson,K.E.,Gratton,G.,Fabiani, M.,Beck,D.M.,andRo,T.(2009).To seeornottosee:prestimulusalpha phasepredictsvisualawareness. J. Neurosci. 29, 8. May,E.C.,Paulinyi,T.,andVassy, Z. (2005).Anomalousanticipa- toryskinconductanceresponse toacousticstimuli:experimental resultsandspeculationabouta mechanism. J. Alternat.Comple- ment.Med. 11, 8. McCraty,R.,Atkinson,M.,andBradley, R. T.(2004a).Electrophysiological evidenceofintuition:part1.The surprisingroleoftheheart. J. Alter- nat. Complement.Med. 10, 11. McCraty,R.,Atkinson,M.,andBradley, R. T.(2004b).Electrophysiological evidenceofintuition:part2.A system -wideprocess? J. Altern.Com- plement.Med. 10, 12. McDonough,B.,Don,N.,andWatson. (2002). Differentialevent -related potentialstotargetsanddecoysina guessing task. J. Sci.Exploration 16, 187­206. Mossbridge,J.,Grabowecky,M.,and Suzuki,S.(2010).Physiological markersoffutureoutcomes:three experimentsonsubconsciouspsi perceptionduringconcurrentper formanceofaguessingtask. Paper Presentedatthe54thAnnualConven- tionoftheParapsychologicalAssocia- tion, Curitiba,17. Moulton,S.T.,andKosslyn,S.M. (2008). Usingneuroimagingto resolvethepsidebate. J. Cogn.Neu- rosci. 20, 11. Orwin,R.G.(1983).Afail-safeNfor effectsizeinmeta-analysis. J. Educ. Stat. 8, 157­159. Panzeri,S.,Brunel,N.,Logothetis,N. K., andKayser,C.(2010).Sensory neuralcodesusingmultiplexedtem- poralscales. TrendsNeurosci. 33, 10. Parkhomtchouk,D.,Kotake,J.,Zhang, T.,Chen,W.,Kokubo,H.,and Yamamoto,M.(2002).Anattempt toreproducethepresentimentEDA response. J. Int.Soc.LifeInf.Sci. 20, 191­194. Radin,D.(1997).Unconsciousper-

www.frontiersin.org

2012 / 3/ 390


Mossbringe et al.

-

ceptionoffutureemotions:an experimentinpresentiment. J. Sci. Exploration 11, 163­180. Radin,D.(1998)."Further investigationofuncon- scious differentialanticipatory responsestofutureemotion s," in Proceedingsofthe41stAnnual ConventionoftheParapsychological Association , Halifax,162­183. Radin,D.(2004).Electrodermalpresentimentsoffutureemotions. J. Sci. Exploration 18, 253­273. Radin,D.,andBorges,A.(2009). Intuitionthroughtime:whatdoes the seersee? Explore(NY) 5, 200­211. Radin,D.,andLobach,E.(2007). Towardunderstandingtheplacebo effect:investigatingapossibleretro- causal factor. J. Altern.Complement. Med. 13, 733­739. R-Development-Core-Team.(2011). R: A LanguageandEnvironmentforSta- tisticalComputing. Vienna:RFoun- dationforStatisticalComputing. Ribeiro,R.,TeixeiraSilva,F.,Pom- peia,S.,andFranciscoAmodeo Bueno,O.(2007).IAPSincludes photographsthatelicitlow -arousal physiologicalresponsesinhealthy volunteers. Physiol.Behav. 91, 671­ 675. Rosenthal,R.(1979).The"file drawerproblem"andtolerance fornullresults. Psychol.Bull. 86, 638­641. Rosenthal,R.,andRosnow,R.L.(2008). EssentialsofBehavioralResearch, 3rd Edn, Boston:McGraw-Hill. Rosenthal,R.,andRubin,D.B. (2003). requivalent:asimpleeffect sizeindicator. Psychol.Methods 8, 492­496. Rousselet,G.(2012).Doesfilteringpre- cludeusfromstudyingERPtime- courses? Front.Psychol. 3, 1­9. Sartori,L.,Massaccessi,S.,Martinell, M., andTressoldi,P.(2004).Phys - iologicalcorrelatesofESP:heart ratedifferencesbetweentargets and nontargets. J. Parapsychol. 68, 351­360. Soon,C.S.,Brass,M.,Heinze,H.J., and Haynes,J.D.(2008).Uncon- scious determinantsoffreedecisions in thehumanbrain. Nat.Neurosci. 11, 543­545. Spottiswoode,S.,andMay,E.(2003). Skinconductanceprestimulus re sponse:analyses,artifactsanda pilot study. J. Sci.Exploration 17, 617­641. Sterne,J.,Becker,B.,andEgger,M.(eds). (2005). The FunnelPlot. Hoboken, NJ: JohnWileyandSons,Ltd. Tressoldi,P.,Marinelli,M.,Massaccessi, S., andSartori,L.(2005).Heartrate differences betweentargetsandnontargetsinintuitivatetasks. Hum. Physiol. 31, 6446­6650. Tressoldi,P.,Martinelli,M.,Zaccaria, E., andMassaccessi,S.(2009). Implicitintuition:howheartrate can contributetopredictfuture events. J. Soc.Psych.Res. 73, 1­16. Vannini,A.,andDiCorpo,U.(2008). Pre-stimuliheartratedifferences: replicaandcontrols. Syntropy 1, 109­138. Wackermann,J.(2002).Oncumulativeeffectsandaveragingarti- factsinrandomisedS-Rexperi- mentaldesigns. Paperpresentedat the 45thAnnualConventionofthe ParapsychologicalAssociation, Paris, 293­305. ConflictofInterestStatement: The authorsdeclarethattheresearchwas conductedintheabsenceofanycom- mercialorfinancialrelationshipsthat couldbeconstruedasapotentialcon - flictofinterest. Received:05June2012;accepted:18Sep- tember2012;publishedonline:17Octo- ber2012. Citation:MossbridgeJ,TressoldiP and UttsJ(2012)Predictivephys- iologicalanticipationprecedingseem- inglyunpredictablestimuli:ameta- analysis.Front.Psychology 3:390. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2012.00390 This articlewassubmittedtoFrontiersin PerceptionScience,aspecialtyofFrontiers in Psychology. Copyright©2012Mossbridge,Tressoldi and Utts.Thisisanopen -accessarti- cledistributedunderthetermsofthe CreativeCommonsAttributionLicense, whichpermitsuse,distributionand reproductioninothe rforums,provided the originalauthorsandsourcearecred- itedandsubjecttoanycopyrightnotices concerninganythird -partygraphicsetc.

, , : = , , , Xe , Sc ­ . , , , , . . , , , , t t-. t- . , :

www.frontiersin.org

2012 / 3/ 390


Mossbringe et al. - r ­ . , :

,



, . D Sd . 0, , . , . t- , d . ,

= r: ,

www.frontiersin.org

2012 / 3/ 390


Mossbringe et al.

-

www.frontiersin.org

2012 / 3/ 390


Mossbringe et al.

-

www.frontiersin.org

2012 / 3/ 390


Mossbringe et al.

-

1 , -11 -10 . ­ . , . +/- 1. , ( ) ( 54 ) ( ) ( 30 ) . 2 , - 3 - . - , ­ . 4 - . - , ­ . 5 (1/ ) , , , "----". ­ "----", ­ "---". 6 - 56 , ­ 30 . ­ . 56 , - , . - . -, . : Study - Entire study ­ Roullete - Bussines case ­ Calm\ emotional ­ \ Electrodermal - BOLD ­ Image - Heart rate ­ Blood volume ­ Measure - Anticipatory period ­ Startle sounds ­ Pleasant\alerting sounds ­ \ www.frontiersin.org 2012 / 3/ 390