Econometric models in sports management: the case of football
Jurij Ju. Petrunin
Ph.D., Professor, School of Public Administration, Lomonosov Moscow State University. E-mail:petrunin@spa.msu.ru
The article examines trends in using of econometric models in soccernomics. The article analyses the impact of the average height on success of the national soccer team. The study shows that the average height of population of the country is positively correlated with football successes of the national team (r=0.53, p<0.05). However, the average height of national team’s players negatively correlated with the national football team’s success (r=0.58; p<0.05).
The article shows polynomial regression dependence between the average height and the team’s results: optimum average height of a football team is 178–180 cm.
The article highlights the trends in changing of the average height of players in the leading European countries. The same conclusions as for the national team can be drawn regarding European clubs: the lower the average height of the players of the club, the better the club stands in the national championship.
The article also shows that there is a strong correlation (r=0.95; p<0.05) between the average age and the average height of players in European clubs.
This situation can probably be explained by better survival rate of tall players and elimination of players with less height. Unexpected tendency of the last three years in the leading European football countries is that the average height of expatriates in the clubs is higher than the average height of national players.
Keywords
Econometric, soccernomics, soccermetrics, average height, performance football team.