Äîêóìåíò âçÿò èç êýøà ïîèñêîâîé ìàøèíû. Àäðåñ îðèãèíàëüíîãî äîêóìåíòà : http://www.chronos.msu.ru/old/RREPORTS/pogodaev-trehmernoe_vremya.pdf Äàòà èçìåíåíèÿ: Sat Dec 14 13:24:39 2013 Äàòà èíäåêñèðîâàíèÿ: Fri Feb 28 12:36:04 2014 Êîäèðîâêà:

- - .. Email: pogse@ukr.net . , - . , , . , . , , . , , , . . . , - . .. .. , , Ñ . .. [2, . 15-244]. , , , .. , .. , .. , .. , .. , .. . , , . , .. , .. , .. , .. , .. , . , . , . , .. , . , .. , .. , .. , .. , .. , .. , . , .. , . , . , .. , .. , .. , .. , . , . , . , .. , .. . . - , . , - , , : [1, c. 4-10; 3, . 33-272; 5, . 42-351; 6, c. 38-614; 9, c. 23-358; 10, c. 12-186], [11, c. 9-146; 12, c. 866-869; 13, . 217-232; 14, . 3-42; 15, . 510-524; 16, c. 9-22] . [4, . 58 -65]. [7, . 12-15; 8, . 57-69] ­ ; ­ - . . , - .


, . , -, (.. - , ). , , . , , , , , , , , , . , , -, ­ , , ­ . - . : - ; - ; -; , ; Ñ , ; . - . -, -, , - . : - . - , . . , . - . . . , , . : , . ­ . - . , , . , .


, . , Ñ . , ­ , . , , . . Ñ . , . , , , , . , , . , , . -. , . . - . . . . . . -, , . «» ­ «». , , . . . - - , . , Ñ . , - . . , , , , . , , , . : « », « », « » . « », « », , ,


, . ­ , . , , , . , ­ . , . , , ­ . , , , , , ( ), , , . , . -, , - , - , . - . , , ­ «», «-» «-». ­ « ­ » ­ . , . . Ñ , Ñ ­ . ( ) , , , , . , ( ) , , . - () 49 ( ). , , ­ ­ . . : Cnm = m! / n! (m-n)! m = 3 ( ) n = 1, : 13 = 1·2·3 / 1·(3-1)·(2-1) = 6 / 2 = 3. , (n = 2),


: 23 = 1·2·3 / 1·2 (3-2) = 6 / 2 = 3. (n = 3) : 33 = 1·2·3 / 1·2·3 = 6 / 6 = 1. ( ) : = 13 + 23 + 33 = 3 + 3+ 1 = 7. ( ). , - . - . , , « » .. . - . - . - . . , . . , , . , , , , ( , ). ( ) (, , ) ; , , . ­ . 1:
R
gens

+

­ ( ) + R

­

buys

+ R ­
invc





. 1


, ­ . ­ , ­ . () , , , , - (). , , . : Rbuys ­ (Buyers-Suppliers Market Axis) «-», ; Rinvc ­ (Investors-Competitors Market Axis) «-», ; Rgens ­ (General Contractors-Subcontractors Market Axis) «-», . , . ­ , . . . MTrfor, MTafor, MTarot , ­ . 2:


MTrfor

MT

arot

MTafor





. 2 - ( ), ( ), ( ). ­ , . ­ : trfor ­ (Regular Forward Market Time) , ;


tafor ­ (Accelerated Forward Market Time) , ; tarot ­ (Accelerated Rotatory Market Time) , . , Ñ , : MTrfor ­ (Regular Forward Market Time Vector) , ; MTafor ­ (Accelerated Forward Market Time Vector) , ; MTarot ­ (Accelerated Rotatory Market Time Vector) , . MT ­ . . 3:
trfor

MTrfor MTafor

MT

arot

ta

for

tarot

MT

. 3 Ñ MT ­ (Market Time Vector) , . Ñ ­ , ( ). ­ , . , , , ­ , , . Ñ , (. 4): , , , , . , , ,


. , , , . , , , . . Ñ . , , .. . , . , , . «» , , , , .
trfor



tafor tarot

. 4 . . , , . , , . . . . , , , , . . , (tafor tarot) . , ,


V - Rarot ( ) «» «0» , . Rarot , V, aarot ­ . 5:

R

arot



0

A
arot

tafor

a

V tarot

. 5 , tafor ­ (Accelerated Forward Market Time) , ; tarot ­ (Accelerated Rotatory Market Time) , ; ­ , ; 0 ­ ; V ­ (Time Velocity) , /; aarot ­ (Market Rotatory Acceleration) - , /2 ; Rarot ­ (Radius-Vector) - , ; ­ (Angle) - , . , . ­ . . (trfor tafor) (trfor tarot) , , , , (1): t t
afor arot

= t0 = t0

afor arot

+ Rarot cos( ­ o), + Rarot sin( ­ o),

(1)




t0 afor ­ (Accelerated Forward Market Time) , ; t0 arot ­ (Accelerated Rotatory Market Time) , ; ­ (Angle) - , . - Rarot Ñ, ­ . - . - . , ­ , . ­ , . ­ , . ­ , . ­ , , . , . , ( ), ( ). , , , ­ (. 6):
V
mar

Tslo

w

Ta

ccel

0

t

Tcycle

. 6 Vmar ­ (Market Velocity) , /; Taccel ­ (Acceleration Time) , ; Tslow ­ (Slowing Down Time) , ; Tcycle ­ (Cycle Time) , .


. 6 ( ) , , Tslow > Taccel. , , , , : Tslow < Taccel , . 7.
V Tslo
mar w

Taccel

0

t

Tcycle

. 7 - . Ñ , . , ­ . , . , . - : STCmar (Market Space-Time Continuum). - ­ . , - . , , .. - STCmar ( ): STCmar = f (Rbuys , Rinvc , Rgens , trfor , tafor , tarot ). TCmar (Market Time Continuum) : TCmar = f (trfor , tafor , tarot ). SCmar (Market Space Continuum) : SCmar = f (Rbuys , Rinvc , Rgens ). Ñ ( ). . ( ) . , ( ) . , - . Ñ


. Ñ t0 mar , trfor , tafor , tarot . Ñ R0 mar , , Rbuys , Rinvc , Rgens . . 8:
t0
mar

(trfor , tafor , tarot )

R

0 mar

(R

buys

,R

invc

,R

gens

)

. 8 - . Ñ , (/). , . , . . , « », . , ( ). . ( ) (/2). , . , (2), (3), (4): V=R/t a a
afor arot rfor afor arot

=> t => t = R2 / R
arot

rfor afor arot

= R / V, = V / aafor , ________ = R / Rarot ·aarot .

(2) (3) (4)

=V/t

= V2 / R

t

2 arot

=> t

R V . , : trfor ­ , tafor ­ tarot ­ . Rarot ­ . . 5, aarot ­ ( ) ­ . (5): ________ tmar (trfor , tafor , tarot ) => (R / V, V / aafor , R / Rarot · aarot ), (5) t
mar

­ (Market Irregular Time) , ;


aafor ­ (Forward Market Acceleration) - , /2. -. - () (). ( ) , , 49 ­ . 1: 1 -
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 / Rbuys Rinvc Rgens Rbuys Rinvc Rinvc Rgens Rgens Rbuys Rbuys Rinvc Rgens trfor trfor Rbuys trfor Rinvc trfor Rgens trfor Rbuys Rinvc trfor Rinvc Rgens trfor Rgens Rbuys trfor Rbuys Rinvc R tafor tafor Rbuys tafor Rinvc tafor Rgens tafor Rbuys Rinvc tafor Rinvc Rgens tafor Rgens Rbuys tafor Rbuys Rinvc R tarot tarot Rbuys tarot Rinvc tarot Rgens tarot Rbuys Rinvc tarot Rinvc Rgens tarot Rgens Rbuys tarot Rbuys Rinvc R

gens

gens

gens

. 1
trfor tafor tafor tarot tarot trfor trfor tafor tarot trfor tafor Rbuys tafor tarot Rbuys tarot trfor Rbuys trfor tafor tarot Rbuys trfor tafor Rinvc tafor tarot Rinvc tarot trfor Rinvc trfor tafor tarot Rinvc trfor tafor Rgens tafor tarot Rgens tarot trfor Rgens trfor tafor tarot Rgens trfor tafor Rbuys Rinvc tafor tarot Rbuys Rinvc tarot trfor Rbuys Rinvc trfor tafor tarot Rbuys Rinvc trfor tafor Rinvc Rgens tafor tarot Rinvc Rgens tarot trfor Rinvc Rgens trfor tafor tarot Rinvc Rgens trfor tafor Rgens Rbuys tafor tarot Rgens Rbuys tarot trfor Rgens Rbuys trfor tafor tarot Rgens Rbuys trfor tafor RbuysRinvcRgens tafor tarot RbuysRinvcRgens tarot trfor RbuysRinvcRgens trfor tafortarotRbuysRinvcRgens

- trfor Rbuys Rinvc Rgens ­ . 2: 2 -
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 / Rbuys Rinvc Rgens Rbuys Rinvc Rinvc Rgens Rgens Rbuys Rbuys Rinvc Rgens trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor R R R R R R R

buys invc gens buys invc gens buys

Rinvc Rgens Rbuys Rinvc R

gens

-, trfor tafor Rbuys Rinvc Rgens ­ . . 3:


3 -
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 / Rbuys Rinvc Rgens Rbuys Rinvc Rinvc Rgens Rgens Rbuys Rbuys Rinvc Rgens trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor R R R R R R R trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor tafor tafor tafor tafor tafor tafor tafor tafor R R R R R R R

buys invc gens buys invc gens buys

buys invc gens buys invc gens buys

Rinvc Rgens Rbuys Rinvc R

gens

Rinvc Rgens Rbuys Rinvc R

gens

, , ( ) , - : tarot trfor Rbuys Rinvc Rgens ­ . 4: 4 - ,
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 / Rbuys Rinvc Rgens Rbuys Rinvc Rinvc Rgens Rgens Rbuys Rbuys Rinvc Rgens trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor R R R R R R R tarot tarot tarot tarot tarot tarot tarot tarot trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor R R R R R R R

buys invc gens buys invc gens buys

buys invc gens buys invc gens buys

Rinvc Rgens Rbuys Rinvc R

gens

Rinvc Rgens Rbuys Rinvc R

gens

, - ­ : trfor tafor tarot Rbuys Rinvc Rgens ­ . 5: 5 , -
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 / Rbuys Rinvc Rgens Rbuys Rinvc Rinvc Rgens Rgens Rbuys Rbuys Rinvc Rgens trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor R R R R R R R trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor tafor tafor tafor tafor tafor tafor tafor tafor tarot tarot tarot tarot tarot tarot tarot tarot R R R R R R R

buys invc gens buys invc gens buys

buys invc gens buys invc gens buys

Rinvc Rgens Rbuys Rinvc R

gens

Rinvc Rgens Rbuys Rinvc R

gens

, . ­ . : trfor -, (. 6):

Ñ ,


6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor trfor R R R R R R R

buys invc gens buys invc gens buys

Rinvc Rgens Rbuys Rinvc R

gens

49 , . - 48 1 . 49 . (), () (). . 7 ­ , . 8 ­ , . 9 ­ : 7 -
/ 1 Rbuys trfor trfor R trfor tafor trfor tafor R

buys

buys

8 -
/ 1 Rbuys Rinvc trfor trfor R R tarot trfor tarot trfor R R

buys

invc

buys

invc

9 -
/ 1 Rbuys Rinvc Rgens trfor trfor R R R trfor tafor tarot trfor tafor tarot R R R

buys

invc

gens

buys

invc

gens

, - ­ , . ­ Ñ . ­ Ñ . - ­ , , ­ - . . . «» , ­ «» .


, ­ . ­ , 31 , 30 , 12 / 11 = 1,1 . 28 , ( ). 85,7% . , . , 80 60 , 80 / 60 = 1,33 . , Ñ . , , , ; . . , ( ) . , , , , «» . , , , , ­ . 9.
1 2 a

0 a a a
firm 2 mar aver firm 1

a

firm 2

<0

a

firm 1

>0

mar

. 9 : amar aver ­ (Market Average Acceleration) , /2 ; afirm 1 ­ (Firm's Acceleration) , /2 ; afirm 2 ­ (Firm's Acceleration) , /2 . (6): a a
1 firm 2 firm

= a1 = a2

firm firm

­ amar aver , ­ amar aver .

(6)

, . ,


, , . . . « » « ». . , , ­ . , . , (aafor < 0), . , ( , aarot > 0) , . , (aafor > 0), . , ( , aarot < 0) . , (), , () , . 100 , : ­100 . , : 1-2-3-4-1', ­ . 10:
trfor 2 3 1

1'

ta tarot 4

for

. 10 Ñ . , , , . ,


, , . . . ( ) . , , , . ­ , . , , . , , FTaccel, FTregul FTslow (7): FT
accel

< FT

regul

< FT

slow

,

(7)

FTaccel ­ (Forecasting Time for Accelerated Market) , ; FTregul ­ (Forecasting Time for Regular Market) , ; FTslow ­ (Forecasting Time for Slowed Market) , . , , . , , : Rmar accel = Rmar regul = Rmar slow , Rmar accel ­ (Market Rate Distance) , , ; Rmar regul ­ (Market Rate Distance) , , ; Rmar slow ­ (Market Rate Distance) , , . , , (8): Rma Rma Rma
r accel r regu r slow

= Vmar accel · taccel + (amar accel / 2) t2accel , l = Vmar regul · tregul , = Vmar slow · tslow ­ (amar slow / 2) t2slow .

(8)

(9): Vmar accel · taccel + (amar = Vmar slow · tslow ­ (ama
accel r

/ 2) t2accel = Vma 2 slow / 2) t slow ,

r regul

·t

regul

= (9)

Vmar accel ­ (Accelerated Market Velocity) , /;


Vmar regul ­ (Regular Market Velocity) , /; Vmar slow ­ (Slowed Market Velocity) , /. amar accel , amar slow ( ) taccel , tregul tslow (, ). , Ñ , ­ , ­ , 60 . ­ . , 1 . = 30 . 0,05 /, .. 1,5 /. 0,000044 /2, 0,04 /2; () ­0,000022 /2, ­0,02 /2. Ñ () . : Rma
r accel

= Vma
accel

r accel

· ta

ccel

+ (a
2

mar accel

/ 2) t

2

accel

,

60 = 1,5 · t

+ (0,04 / 2) t

accel

.

: t
2 accel accel

t FT

­ 3 000 = 0. _____________ _______ = ­ 75 / 2 ± (75 / 2)2 + 3 000 = ­ 37,5 ± 4 406,25 = ­ 37,5 ± 66,4.
accel

+ 75 · t

accel

: = 28,9 (2,4 ). : Rma
r regul

= Vma
regul

r regul

·t

regul

,

60 = 1,5 · t FT
regul

,

= 40 (.) 3,3 .

: Rma
r slow

= Vma
slow

r slow

·t

slow

­ (a
2

mar slow

/ 2) t

2

slow

,

60 = 1,5 · t

­ (0,02 / 2) t

slow

.

: t t
2 slow

slow

+ 6 000 = 0, ______________ _____ = + 150 / 2 ± (150 / 2)2 ­ 6 000 = + 75 ± ­ 375 = + 75 ± 19,4· i.
slow

­ 150 · t

:


, 60 ; 55,6 (4,6 ) , ; , , . , ( ). , 50 : Rma
r slow

= Vma
slow

r slow

·t

slow

­ (a
2

mar slow

/ 2) t

2

slow

,

50 = 1,5 · t

­ (0,02 / 2) t

slow

.

: t t
2 slow

slow

+ 5 000 = 0, ______________ ___ = + 150 / 2 ± (150 / 2)2 ­ 5 000 = + 75 ± 625 = + 75 ± 25.
slow

­ 150 · t

, 55,6 . tslow = 100 , : tslow = 50 . , , 50 , , , 50 (4,2 ). , , , . : - . . -. . . - ; , . , . : , , , , . . , , . , , , , , . () .


1. .. - - / .. // . ­ 2011. ­ 3. ­ . 4-10 2. .. / .. . ­ .: , 1975. ­ 305 . 3. .. - : . ... - . : 08.00.01 / .. ; - . -. ­ , .: 2011. ­ 341 . 4. .. / .. // . . ­ .: - , 2000. ­ . 4. ­ . 58-65 5. .. . ... - . : 08.00.01 / .. ; . . -. ­ : 2011. ­ 441 . 6. .. / .. . ­ .: , 2002. ­ 767 . 7. .. «» /.. // . ­ 2003.­ 1.­ . 12-15 8. .. / .. // . ­ 1996. ­ 1. ­ . 57-69 9. .. : / .. , .. . ­ : +, 2006. ­ 447 . 10. . . / . ; . . .. . ­ .: - , 2011. ­ 232 . 11. .. . ... - . : 08.00.01 / .. ; . -. ­ .: 2011. ­ 183 . 12. Cowen T. Inconsistent Equilibrim Constructs: The Evenly Rotating Economy in Mises and Rothbard / T. Cowen, R. Fink // American Economic Review. ­ 1975. ­ Vol. 75. ­ No 4. ­ P. 866-869 13. Engerman S. Institutions, Factor Endowments, and the Paths of Development in the New World / S. Engerman, K. Sokolof // Journal of Economic Perspectives. ­ 2000. ­ Vol. 14. ­ No 3. ­ P. 217-232 14. Lucas R.E. On the Mechanics of Economic Development / R.E. Lucas // Journal of Monetary Economics. ­ 1988. ­ Vol. 22. ­ No 1. ­ P. 3-42 15. Narasimhan . Absorptive Capacity in High-Technology Markets / O. Narasimhan, S. Rajiv, S. Dutta // Marketing Science. ­ 2006. ­ Vol. 25. ­ No 5. ­ P. 510-524 16. Prescott E. Theory Ahead of Business Cycle Measurement / E. Prescott // Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review. ­ 1986. ­ Vol. 10. ­ No 4. ­ P. 9-22