CONTENT 4 (3) 2010

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GEOGRAPHY

Enrico Brugnoli

Institute of Agro-environmental Biology and Forestry (IBAF), Via Marconi 2, 05010 Porano, (TR), Italy
E-mail: enrico.brugnoli@por.ibaf.cnr.it

Olga Solomina

Institute of Geography RAS, Moscow, Staromonetny-29, IGRAS, 119017, Russia
E-mail: olgasolomina@yandex.ru
Corresponding author

Luciano Spaccino

Institute of Agro-environmental Biology and Forestry (IBAF), Via Marconi 2, 05010 Porano, (TR), Italy

Ekaterina Dolgova

Institute of Geography RAS, Moscow, Staromonetny-29, IGRAS, 119017, Russia

Abstract:
Variability of width, maximum density and stable isotopes (δ¹³C) in tree-rings of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) were studied in Northern Caucasus. Statistically sufficient agreements between ring width chronologies allow to construct composite chronology for the Elbrus area. Absence or low correlation between indices of the ring width and maximum density chronology point out different climatic signal. The influence of temperature and precipitation on these tree-ring parameters was also analyzed. The ring width of pine at the upper tree limit in the Baksan valley correlates positively with the June and July precipitation (r=0.3; 0.3; 0.4, p<0.05). No correlation with temperature parameters was found. The maximum density reflects the warm period temperature (April-October). The similarity in interannual variations of δ¹³C in annual rings between the individual samples means that their display a coherent common signal. This signal can be largely interpreted as the June and July precipitation.
Key words: Scots pine, stable isotopes (δ¹³C), tree-ring width, tree-ring maximum density, Northern Caucasus

Head of Caspian Sea National Research & Study Center, Water Research Institute, 8 Km of Khazarabad Road, Sari, Mazandaran, Iran
E-mail: h_khoshravan@yahoo.com

Abstract:
The main objective of this study is Miankaleh shoreline displacement against Caspian rapid sea level changing and anthropogenic impact. The morphological subunits and shoreline position have been recognized by comparing and processing of aerial photos related to 2 periods of expanded Caspian Sea level fluctuation(1966–2005). Then observational works and surface geology have been done along the eight transects from extremity of western to eastern of mentioned area. Main results show the tendency of flooding vulnerability and shoreline displacement increase at the end of eastern region of Miankaleh near Ashooradeh peninsula where there is an interaction with Caspian rapid sea level changing. In the direction of west, shoreline deformation degree declines gradually.
Key words: Caspian, beach, fluctuation, Miankaleh

Nikolai G. Makarenko

Leading scientist, Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory, Saint-Petersburg, Russia
Institute of Mathematics, Pushkin str. 200010, Almaty, Kazakhstan
E-mail: ng-makar@mail.ru
Corresponding author

Lyailya M. Karimova

Principal scientist, Institute of Mathematics, Pushkin str. 200010, Almaty, Kazakhstan
E-mail: klyailya@mail.ru

Olga A. Kruglun

Senior scientist, Institute of Mathematics, Pushkin str. 200010, Almaty, Kazakhstan
E-mail: okruglun@mail.ru

Abstract:
This paper demonstrates the possibility of using nonlinear modeling for prediction of the Caspian Sea level. Phase space geometry of the of a model can be reconstructed by the embedology methods. Dynamical invariants, such as the Lyapunov exponents, the Kaplan-Yorke dimension, and the prediction horizon were estimated from reconstruction. Fractal and multifractal analyses were carried out for various time intervals of the Caspian Sea level and multifractal spectra were calculated. Then, historical data resolution was improved with the help of fractal approximation. The EMD method was used to reduce noise of the time series. Global nonlinear predictions were made with the help of Artificial Neural Network for combinations of different empirical modes.
Key words: Caspian Sea level, fractal approximation, multifractal analysis, empirical mode decomposition, embedology, nonlinear prediction

ENVIRONMENT

P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
E-mail: nemir@ocean.ru

Abstract:
Data are presented on the content and composition of hydrocarbons (aliphatic and polyaromatic) in the filtered particulate matter and in the surface layer of the bottom sediments of the Volga River and the northern shelf of the Caspian Sea. Because of transformation and precipitation of anthropogenic and natural compounds, the HC composition in particulate matter and bottom sediments undergoes changes caused by precipitation of particulate matter, varying temperatures, and mixing of fresh and saline waters. It appeared that the greatest accumulation of the HC proceeds in the region of avalanche sedimentation, and their content is independent of the grain-size type of the sediments. The anthropogenic HC (oil and pyrogenous) do not pass the marginal filter of the Volga River and do not enter the open part of the sea.
Key words: geochemical barrier, marginal filters, oil, hydrocarbons, aliphatic hydrocarbons, alkane, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, suspended particulate matter, bottom sediments

Museum of Earth Sciences of the Moscow State University, Russian Federation
E-mail: snakekaa@yandex.ru

Abstract:
The purpose of the paper is to justify special natural discount rates in the efficiency assessment of conservation activities. Nowadays, the social rate of discounting suggested by D. Pearce is often used. However, many ecosystem values differ in such aspects as absence of high-grade anthropogenic substitutes and conservative character of natural “technologies”, and consequently simple, not expanded, reproduction. As a result, there exists the need for special discounting rate for non-replaceable production and services restricted in their reprocessing and consumption. This follows from the analysis of a consumer choice trajectory in the course of budget growth over a level at which the maximum of consumption of the limited good is reached. The paper estimates the reduction value for discounting rates for renewable natural resources restricted in regeneration in the special case of individual utility functions of the Cobb-Douglas type and, for a collective consumption, using equal-parts resource sharing among consuming community members. The idea of special discount rates for the production and non-material services of ecosystems is useful both for economic efficiency assessment of nature conservation activities and for calculation of compensations from the activities that adversely affect environment quality.
Key words: discounting, natural discount rate, investments, ecosystem production, ecosystem services, effective strength of environmental activity

Natalia N. Mitina

Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Gubkin str., 3, 119991 Moscow, Russia
Phone: +7-499-135-7190
E-mail: natalia_mitina@mail.ru
Corresponding author

Boris M. Malashenkov

Water Problems Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Gubkin str., 3, 119991 Moscow, Russia
Phone: +7-499-135-7190

Abstract:
This paper discusses possible consequences of changes in the Volga-Caspian aquatic ecosystems resulting from climate change according to the data scenarios of the Worldwide Meteorological Organization. Main hydro-ecological factors of stability of the Northern Caspian Sea ecosystems have been determined. It appears that ecosystem stability in the Northern Caspian Sea is primarily affected by natural conditions. It is essential to model riparian ecosystem processes and winter regime of reservoirs to develop strategies for mitigation of negative impacts of climate change. Such measures may include improvement of existing dams in the Volga region.
Key words: Volga River, the Caspian Sea, aquatic ecosystems stability, hydro-ecological factors, climate change, sturgeon distribution

SUSTAINABILITY

Professor, Chief Science and Policy Advisor, Global Risk Forum, Davos, Switzerland; University of Cologne and Beijing Normal University
Phone: +49-171-4133429
E-mail: andreas.rechkemmer@grforum.org

Abstract:
In a world that is becoming more and more exposed and vulnerable to the effects of global climate change, combining integrated risk assessment tools with effective strategies for both mitigation and adaptation is a key prerogative for policy-making. With the focus of both researchers and decision-makers gradually shifting from observing and assessing the bio-physical aspects of climate change to a more human and society centered understanding of the nature of the problem, the social, behavioral, economic and technological aspects have entered center stage of the public discourse. Responses to the climate change challenge have to establish an optimal interplay between mitigation, adaptation and socio-economic instruments. Yet, given the band-width and scale of the climate problematique and its projected impacts, very ambitious mitigation measures have to be undertaken without delays, a fact that is particularly true for emerging economies with their very rapid and unprecedented growth rates, both in GDP and GHG emissions terms.
The challenge for the next years is to harmonize poverty eradication and attaining the Millenium Development Goals through stable economic growth with mitigating the effects of climate change. Therefore, “inclusive green growth” has become the motto of the day. But how can this goal be achieved? Obviously, quite fundamental changes have to be introduced that affect both the production and the consumption sectors and allow for real innovation in technologies and energy, in urban mobility, infrastructure and transportation grids. This paper illustrates the deep social and societal nature of climate change response strategies, especially in the area of mitigation, and shows that transitions to green and low-carbon economies will have to embed policies, incentive schemes and economic instruments in a larger societal context of social learning and behavioral change.
Key words: climate change, mitigation strategies, Millenium Development Goals, inclusive green growth, social learning, innovations

Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, UniversitÈ Paris 1 PanthÈon Sorbonne, France, 191, rue Saint-Jacques, 75005 Paris
E-mail: yrichard@univ-paris1.fr

Abstract:
The economists have thoroughly studied the relations between economic globalization and the regionalization of international trade exchanges. Geographers have started studying the process of regionalization in the 1990s. Nevertheless, most of their studies are based on the row value of trade exchanges of goods. This indicator is quite useful but it suffers from major shortcomings. For instance, it is biased by the size of the economies involved in these exchanges. In order to display a more nuanced picture of globalization, it is necessary to combine it with another indicator: the bilateral intensity of trade exchanges. Both indicators are applied to Europe in order to see to which extent it is concerned by the regionalization of the global economy, especially since the end of the cold war and the end of the ideological blocs.
Key words: regionalization, trade exchanges of goods, bilateral intensity of exchanges, Europe, neighbourhood, Russia

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