Äîêóìåíò âçÿò èç êýøà ïîèñêîâîé ìàøèíû. Àäðåñ îðèãèíàëüíîãî äîêóìåíòà : http://www.soc-phys.chem.msu.ru/rus/prev/zas-2013-10-01/presentation.pdf Äàòà èçìåíåíèÿ: Fri Oct 11 17:42:13 2013 Äàòà èíäåêñèðîâàíèÿ: Fri Feb 28 20:24:01 2014 Êîäèðîâêà:

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, slov@phys.chem.msu.ru



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... . , 2012, 1, .. 2­20, 2, .. 2­31, 3, .. 2 ­ 34.



: «» (1651), : « » (1680), (1738), (1801), (1812) . « » - (Quetelet), 1835.

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2. , , , , , , . 3. « » (, , , .). . 4. ( 1970- ..): . , .


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.. , .. , .. , .. 1900- .. : . ., 2001. . 84 ... ­ XXI . , http://kleio.asu.ru/2012/2/hcsj-22012_34-48.pdf ( )



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« »


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:

(«»)

(« »): congested movement

: q=r v , r (), v(r) , dv; : q(r)

,

Y.Sugiyama et al., New J. Phys., 10 033001 (2008) .., ..-, .., , 2009, 65, 50 ... ( , 2005 .)


« »
C.W. Reynolds, Flocks, Herds, and Schools: A Distributed Behavioral Model, Computer Graphics, 21(4) 25-34 (1987), T.Vicsek, et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 1995, 75, 1226: 2D-

qi(t+1) = qj(t)



+h

qi ­ h ­ («») (a) (b) : «» (c) : (d) :

(d)


3D- «» (boids)

C.W. Reynolds, Computer Graphics, 21(4) 25-34 (1987)


: « »
K.Levin, Field Theory in Social Science, Harper, NY, 1951

midvi/dt = Fi + Fi + hi(t) Fi = (mi/t)(vi(0)e ­ vi) Fi. = - fik + fip + j fij « » Aexp[b(R0­r)], r - , R0 - «»
q(r)
0,8 0,6 0,4

« » ( )

0,2
Y Axis Title

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G.R.Cheng, Centre for Chaos and Complex Networks, City University of Hong Kong

T.Vicsek. Crowd control: a physicist's approach to collective human behaviour. EPS-12 (European Physical Society), Budapest 2002


(1990- ..)

, , , .

"Freezing by heating"

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12.01.06 (, )



: () (). : ; ­ . ­ «» () .


: (crowd control)

, 2012 .



Z.Neda, et al. Synchronization of two-mode's oscillators: a new model for rhythmic applause and much more, Physica A, 2003, 321, 238
(a) (b) () (d) () f*- «» , t*­

a

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I.Farkas, D.Helbing, T.Vicsek, Mexican wave in excitable media Nature 419, 131 (2002)



I.D.Couzin, et al., Effective leadership and decision-making in animal groups on the move. Nature 2005, 433, 513: J.R.G. Dyer, et al., Leadership, consensus decision making and collective behaviour in humans. Phil. Trans. Royal Soc. B 2009, 364, 781 (100-200 .) (10-20 .), - . , 5% .

.. ­ : , 2011





(complex networks)
, : () ­ -, () rewiring ­ ­ L~lnN (N ­ )



( .. 2011 .)


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: 1. M.Newman, A.-L.Barabasi, D.J.Watts (Eds.), The Structure and Dynamics of Networks, Princeton Univ. Press, 2006. 2. D.Helbing (Ed.), Managing Complexity: Insights, Concepts, Applications , Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 2008. 3. M.Newman, Networks: An Introduction, Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford, 2010 4. S.N.Dorogovtsev, Lectures on Complex Networks, Oxford University Press, 2010. 5 .., .., .., : , , ., , 2010

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M.E.J. Newman, Detecting community structure in networks, Eur. Phys. J. B 2004, 38, 321­330 I.X.Y.Leung, et al., Towards real-time community detection in large networks, Phys. Rev. E, 2009, 79, 066107. L.Lu, T.Zhou, Link prediction in complex networks: a survey. Physica A, 2011, 390, 1150 N. Memon , U.K.Wiil (Eds.) Mathematical methods for destabilizing terrorist activities. ­ London: Springer, ­ 2011. ­ 300 p


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() (% , % )

: 1318 ( ¾ ­ ), 18.7% , >80% ( 147 ­ 40% )

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E.M.Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations, Free Press, N.Y., 1983 M.Handley, Dept. Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Univ. of California, San Francisco, USA

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: 1. opinion leaders 2. , .. (C.Shirkey, Here Comes Everybody. The Power of Organizing Without Organization, Penguin, 2008) 3. , , , « »: 10-20% (http://rickwilsondmd.typepad.com/mandaeancrisis)

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M.Simoni et al., 1st Int. Conf. on Econ. Sciences with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents (W EHIA 2006), http://www2.dse.unibo/it/wehia/ /paral_session.htm

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: - , -
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:


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L.Bachelier, Theorie de la speculation (1900): B.B.Mandelbrot, The variation of certain speculative prices, J.Business, 36, 394 (1963): , (1929) T.J.Sargent, Dynamic macroeconomic theory. Cambridge: Harvard Univ. Press, 1987. P.W.Anderson, J.K.Arrow, D.Pines (eds.), The economy as an evovling complex system, Eddison-Wesley, Redwood City,1988: R.N.Mantegna, H.E.Stanley, Scaling behavior in the dynamics of an economic index, Nature 376, 46 (1995).

1995 .: «» ( . , ) 1997 . ­ 1- ()
.. ., , , 172, 1045 (2002) .. , .. . , 181, 779­786 (2011)

: 2009 .: 1- (, .)



H.E.Stanley, et al. Similarities and differences between physics and economics, Physica A 287 339 (2000). «» (leptocurtic)
:

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% < 2 $ / . ~40% I.Ortis, M.Cummins, Global inequality: beyound the bottom billion UNICEF 2011 www.networkideas.org/featart/apr2011 /Ortiz_Cummins.pdf

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«c» D.T.Quah, Econ. J. 1996, 106, 1045 )


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A.Banerjee, V.M.Yakovenko, New J. Phys., 12, 075032 (2010)

I. «» Dmi (?) (M=const). II. Ps(r) =

0=Ps/t = /r[A(r)P] + 2/r2[B(r)P],
A(r) = ­ Dr/Dt, B = (Dr)2/2Dt. (1) : Dr r A=A0, B=B
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., , , 1998, . 63 ­ 66: .., .., . V . . ­., 1971. ­. 207­209





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:
P=1/4

« » (voter model) Holley R., Liggett T. Ann. Probab. 1975. 3, N 4. 643

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« » (majority rule, S.Galam, 1986)

« » Sznajd-Weron K., Sznajd J. Int. J. Mod. Phys. C. 2000, 11(6), 1157


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:
Ii = ­ (aj ­ bi)sisj/dij + hsi aj - « », bi - «», h - « » dij - « » social impact model (B.Latane, 1981) Holyst J.A., et al. Ann. Rev. Comp. Phys. 2001, ­ V. 9. ­ P. 253 -273 Ii = ­SLsi + hsi ­ (ajsisj/dijg )
Ii - i- , SL>>aisi - p - , (sign si = sign SL), T - («»)

p






{xi(t)[0,1]}
« » (bounded confidence): Dxij(t)=xi(t)­xj(t), 0 {xi}

e = 0.5

t
M.Afshar, M.Asadpour, Opinion formation by informed agents, JASSS, 2010, 13(4), 5 (http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/13/4/5.html): 3% « » (), (xM(t=1)= xi ) (xM(t)1), («consensus engineering»)



uik = ­ jwij[xj(i)­Xj(k)]2 + xk + l
k

uik ­ k- i- , 0 2005 . «» (S) () . SLD ­ Sojuz Lewicy Demokratycznej SDP ­ Socjaldemokracja Polska DEM ­ Partija Demokraticzna + Demokraci Polski PO ­ Platforma Obywatelska SO ­ Samoobrona Rzeczpospolitej Polski PSL ­ Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowo LPR ­ Liga Polskich Rodzin PiS ­ Prawo i Sprawedliwo

S

E

Schofield N. et al. Application of a formal model of elections. http://intersci.ss.uci.edu/wiki/pdf/SCHOFIELD_PEDI.20MayTextNEWTableFigspoland.pdf .. : // . . . 2009, 45, 110 .. // . . . ­ . ­ 2010. ­ . 205-232 http://math.isu.ru/ru/chairs/me/files/filatov/2010_ -_polit.pdf



T.C.Schelling, J. Math. Sociology, 1, 143-186 (1971)
R

R

% Black




(«» ) R=a­bx «» FB=RxW=xB, FW=RxB=xW () .
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M.Granovetter, Amer. J. Sociology, 83, 1420-1443 (1978)

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(threshold models): f1(t)f2(t+1) . P0 (Goldstone R.L., Janssen M.A. Trends Cogn. Sci. 2005, 9(9): 424-430). : (xi=0) (xi=1) , « » (1/N)xi(t)

M (Epstein J.M. Modeling civil violence: an agent-based computational approach, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2002, 99, Suppl. 3, 7243 -7250): N «» P «» , «» (xi=1) Gi-piri>G0, Gi=Hi(1­L) - , Hi - , L - , ri - ([0,1]), pi=[1 ­ exp(­kPi/N*i)] ­ , Pi N*i - - . : Gi N*

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: Gi-piri>G0, Gi=Hi(1­L)

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Daskalova V. et al. Networks Coalitions and Revolutions http://tuvalu/sanrafe.edu/events/workshops/index.php/Networks_Coalitions_and_Revolutions



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GROW Lab

4. N.F.Johnson, Complexity in human conflicts, . Managing Complexity: Insights, Concepts, Applications, Springer, Berlin, 2008. 5. R. Soto-Garrido, Application of statistical physics to terrorism, 2010 , http://guava.physics.uiuc.edu


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« , , . , , , , , ». (2010 .)



S.Bikhchandani, et al. A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change as Informational Cascades, J. Polit. Economy, 100, 992-1026 (1992)
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P.A.Banos, et al., The role of hidden influentials in the diffusion of online information cascades. arXiv:1303.4629v1 [physics.soc-ph]



«Twitter»: Gonzalez-Bailon S., et al. The dynamics of protest recruitment through an online network, ArXiv:1111.5595 Bachrach D., et al. #h00t: Censorship resistant microblogging ArXiv:1109.6874v1 K.M.Frahm, D.L.Shepelyansky. Google matrix of Twitter ArXiv:1207.3414v1. Twitter 2009 . (41.65 ) (~1000 VIPs)

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