... Consequently, weak fluctuations of the 1 growth rate concerning the M growth rate must necessarily generate strong fluctuations of the 2 growth rate. ... Statistics show that financial shocks occurred at positive values of ()(GDP). ... To test our hypothesis we consider correlation between TSec ­ an average annual growth rate of the market yield on U.S. Treasury securities at 1-year constant maturity ­ and ()-(GDP) over 1960-2009. ... Correlation between ()-(GDP) and the yields spread became...

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